Betting against the USA can be bad for your portfolio longer term. Bias is a killer in all time frames. Many would be "smart guys" have debated the end of this mega trend based on their so called understanding of the US debt situation or other "urgent crisis" they are sure is going to bring about the end. All this while being too myopic to zoom out for real context to price and see that all that dribble has been meaningless.
Get all the concerns over political party, geopolitical events, or fiscal worry out of your minds or you will be unable to see the very simple reality in front of you. There is only one entity that is leading this nation & its not a Repubican or a Democrat. The boss in every business I've ever worked in was the one with the money writing checks!! Only entity in the USA doing this is the Federal Reserve our Central Bank. As long as they will keep printing paper real assets will continue to reprice in terms of an ever increasing medium of exchange. Thats about all you need to know so keep it simple and skip the side show on TV.
There are a lot of "experts" & even more opinions out there but very little understanding of how this whole machine really works. K.I.S.S. and remember the trend is your friend don't bet against it no matter the rational you are sold.
Sadly I see a lot of divergences in the very high time-frames (8 monthly for example). Maybe we are building up a mega-crash.
Kazonomics
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I've heard that kind of speculation all the way up. As long as the fear persist it means it has room to run. Trend is your friend.
ChartArt
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The trend underlying trend is already "down" since Winter 2013. The price just doesn't show it - so far.
It feels to me like Bitcoin at 928 US Dollar last November.
Kazonomics
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If you bet against it winter 2013 your portfolio would be hurting. I don't use indicators for precisely that reason. Indicators don't pay you the price does, and the price is still making new all time highs in the late summer of 2014 regardless of the winter 2013 divergence in a specific indicator. Trade price 1st that's all that matters.
ChartArt
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My message is:
Be cautious. When the prices fall they can fall very deep,
ISpyValue
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Why try to "feel" out the market? Price structure is showing an obvious trend here. Don't let your fear condition your thinking sir, that is what the crowd has been doing since 2009.
ChartArt
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My analysis showed that if I had already been trading in 2009, 2010 - in that case and with the setup I use today - I would have bought back then, at least starting in 2010.
Regarding the current irrational exuberance:
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." from A. Gary Shilling, Forbes (1993) - (This quote was attributed to Keynes).
Kazonomics
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"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." from A. Gary Shilling, Forbes (1993) - (This quote was attributed to Keynes).
This would be precisely the reason you shouldn't try to call the top but instead follow the price till it shows an end to the trend. If not you will find yourself on the side line watching it go for 100's more candle maybe even thousands. The price is gonna pay you not that indicator or any other. A combination of indicators maybe a better solution.