Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X SharesArca
描述
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Jnug Daily Chart
The price action today was right in my little blue box so that was just about perfect. We retested the 10 DMA and closed below the 20 DMA. We still have two more days for the COT report (which cuts off on Tuesday), so I can easily see Jnug drop to the lower pink line. But I gave two ideas. The first pink line is an exact measurement of the first part of this zig zag move down. If that is all we get then I could see Jnug reaching the $7.90's (100 DMA) by the end of next week. But it really isn't too much at all to see Jnug fall to the lower pink line in the next two days. At that point I would be looking for Jnug to rally to that resistance zone that I highlighted and possibly topping out at the $7.75 range. That would be about a 34-35% move. Either way, I would sell Jnug and immediately buy JDST because as you can see, the cycle will be coming to an end around April 10th. So that means Jnug should drop that last week. The BBands should be nice and tight at that point, indicating a big move is about to commence. Interesting how those BBands are coming together right when the cycle ends and a new one begins. This should break Jnug out of the orange wedge and into the larger wedge. I think we will get a really big move at that point but it should only last 1 to 1 1/2 weeks. The reason why I say that is because the daily cycle for spot gold should end sometime in middle May. So I am expecting spot gold to have rolled over by then if it doesn't already start this next two weeks. Oh and another thing to point out. If you have not noticed, the 50 DMA has started to turn down and is really not that far away from the 100 DMA. If they cross, look out below. I am going to take a guess that they cross in early May.
I left my indicator as neutral because I do think we will drop for only two days and then run. GL everyone. lets hope I am correct again.
評論
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Spot Gold Daily Chart Update
So this weekend and past week I have watched numerous videos, read numerous posts, all about how Gold is finishing a Wave 2 and we are about to make new highs. Almost no one is talking about the possibility that this is not a wave 2. People are ignoring the bearish divergence that has formed during this latest short term bull run. They are ignoring the fact that we are once again failing to breakout of the downward trendline wedge. They are ignoring the possible head and shoulders pattern forming. And lastly they are ignoring the possible very large cup and handle patterns for both the dollar and Yen. Its funny how they only bring this stuff up when it suits their bias. So...that being said, if I am correct, take note of these people/analysts. So I am saying that I am leaning bearish for gold. We had a hidden bullish divergence which just played out over the last two weeks. But now their bias's are having them ignore the clear bearish divergence. I did see one person say that we would come down a little bit before shooting much higher. But that is still the same end result. So I guess I will go out on a limb and say that I think the bigger bearish divergence for spot gold is going to catch them by surprise. (I can't wait to hear them say they called it). I think we are going to somewhat follow the arrows. So here is the scenario to be watching for. I think next week will start a drop for gold. If we drop below the price level of the start of this latest gold cycle (which is 1196 area) then that is very bearish and that would be a very big indication that we are going lower by the end of this cycle which should end sometime in middle of May. (Price should not drop below the starting price of the beginning of a cycle if it was really bullish). I would expect a bounce at the 1186 level for maybe a week or so. That would be about half way through the cycle. (quick note - With Europe falling apart, the Euro will likely drop further, that will prop up the dollar and weigh down gold). So lets see who is right. One last thing, the cycles for gold is not as accurate as for miners. World events and economic reports cause the cycles to shift. So all I can do is get close and use Elliot wave to assist me with cycle. GL
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Spot Gold Daily chart I added a micro wave count in pink to show you what I see happening right now with this push up. We are pushing up against the 200 DMA. I do not think it will break. This is the just the final micro wave 5 and we should fall this week.
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Everyone having fun yet? Well that Jnug drop happened a day later than I thought. Now the question is, what happens tomorrow. So I may have made a mistake because I did not buy Jnug at 6.02 today. I waited and had my buy order in at 5.80. I am still holding out hope for an intraday drop and pop (ending the day green for Jnug). I think gold will continue down tomorrow and maybe that will help bring the price action I am looking for. But I might be wrong. AAhhhh. I am crossing my fingers.
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Jnug update So I bought Jnug early this morning. This is what I see happening over the next few days. I really think that Spot gold is weak and wants to come down. So the question is.....what could we see from Jnug if the price of spot gold drops. I think we are in a very narrow trading range over the next few days in between the 10 and 20 DMA. Essentially a tug-of-war... sideways trading. It looks like we are in an even smaller wedge which I drew a red line for. I do not think Jnug is going to drop below the 6.02 level that we saw yesterday. If gold continues to drop overnight then premarket should drop this thing back down to near 6.40. That 6.36 line is a pretty good support level. But this time I do not think it will break. I am looking at Monday or Tuesday before Jnug does a small little pop. I already have a sell order in at the 7.60 level. I would then by jdst right away for the end for cycle drop. Might be able to pick up Jnug tomorrow at a decent price. GL
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So someone asked me a good question that I thought I would share my answer to so that others can better understand how I do my analysis. The question was in essence, how am I able to get a short term price target for next week? Its my best estimation based on all the things I use. For example, assuming if I am correct about just completing the b wave down (which it appears I was correct, including the zig zag pattern that is usually in a "b" wave) then the next thing is to complete a "c" wave back up in the opposite direction of the "b" wave. I am assuming that the "c" wave will start very soon. If for some reason the "c" wave does not start until next Tuesday or Wednesday, then that would make me reconsider the possible top price in the short term due to the wedge getting smaller and smaller. I hope that helps. But in general, I use my cycles analysis for miners and gold and compare the two, I use Elliot wave to help me see where we might be in the price move, I use pattern and trend lines to find support and resistance to aide in finding price tops and bottoms, I use open interest as a less weighted price guide, I use the moving averages to help with that as well, I use seasonality, I use the economic calender a little bit, I really like to use the divergences with the RSI as an early warning to trend changes, and lastly, I use a little bit of dumb luck
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Jnug update We may have already completed a micro wave 1 and 2 in the last two days. I placed small red numbers (1 - 5) to show what I think we may have going on. It is always fun to see if it plays out.
Hi, I think the miners continue to struggle and have only rebounded about 40% of the initial decline it experienced after peaking in Feb. 8. I am waiting a peak of miners to buy jdst, but there is no peak till now. I am worried that a new decline is likely to take hold at any time
SalN
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There is always some type of decline in miners at the end of its cycle. We are getting close to that as I have posted what I think will be the approximate price action. I will be getting into JDST as well, but probably not until next week. There always seems to be a pop at the beginning of the cycle for miners. I posted about that as well. @bingwu,
bhsencer
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Thank you for sharing. If gold go down from this levels, miners will suffer big. So solution would be go up toward 1300 and down toward 1250, bull trap. However market sentiment is short on gold from levels. DXY upward movement fading toward this week end it might start drooping again. That might be the catalyst for gold movement.???
I have JNUG and i will hold them till year end. Now I need gold any good entry do you guess???
SalN
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@bhsencer, Just be careful with planning on going long just yet. I have spoke about this before. So lets look at the spot gold chart. First things first, we need to break out of this first wedge, which gold is just below as we speak. Check out the chart to see what I mean. Then, IF we break through that, then we are not out of the woods just yet. There is the long term downtrend line that we tested a couple times last year and failed. That trend line started in 2011 or 2012. That downtrend line has kept price in a much bigger wedge. Until that line is broken to the upside, there is a very real possibility that we could drop still. So currently we are very early in the gold cycle. IF gold drops a lot over the next couple weeks, then that should raise some alarm bells. IF gold is actually bullish and we are this early in the cycle, don't you think that after such a good yet short rally, that it should bust through this first wedge at the very least in the next couple of weeks. So this next couple of weeks are very important. If price moves similar to what I think it will as I charted with the arrows, then you might want to reconsider. I am not giving you trading advice, just some things to consider and look for.
I see a target price of 7.22 for tomorrow. If not even higher, but 7.22 is a zone of confluence on my chart.
With the health-bill out for the count Trump had his first setback - people will loose faith. Dollar just plunged to 99.3 - Gold up 1256. S&P on way down.
Is this the start for the new JNUG rally?