In my previous idea I located the key levels on chart, and was biased towards a short. Recently, it started being obvious that the Yen was weakening, so I decided to go long GBPJPY. I still think the dollar will remain weak for the rest of the year, possibly until June 2016, nothing has changed, but the
Nikkei is implying that it will rally asap. Tim West's recent publication clearly depicts how the stage was set up for a rally, so I'll limit myself to expand the analysis with a few more details of interest that are worth noting. I include the ichimoku indicator on chart, because it's a very highly regarded tool among japanese traders, and many pro traders as well. It's good to contrast our own analysis with other tools from time to time.
The weekly time at mode downtrend target has been exceeded, and now, time has expired. This implies the Nikkei has a low probability of retesting the mode from where the downtrend launched, at the 20385 mark, in 9 weeks or less. The daily chart is giving confirmation of a bullish time at mode trend signal today, which aims for the top of the kumo resistance. Interestingly enough, the lagging line, which is part of the ichimoku suite, sits above price, 26 bars back from today. This implies that it's possible for price to cross the cloud resistance and meet with the mode above, or beyond. Good luck if going long, keep in mind rgmov is in a downtrend in the daily, so I'd still would look into fading the target hit, or the resistances above, or even short under the highest daily low after overbought spikes.
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Cheers,
Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
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Market entry and range expansion entry working. 2nd 75% fib entry didn't get a fill.
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Partial close on first target, main position running.
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Chugging along nicely.
交易結束：目標達成
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Partial close on target hit is ok but it can travel higher.
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Monitoring, at resistance now, one bar left for the uptrend.
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Time expires today, expect a reaction to the downside.
thanks Ivan. I am ready to sell it down. any thoughts on China A50?
IvanLabrie
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I posted SHI, saw it?
A50 should be fairly similar.
Let me post a chart.
B120626
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what is the link to Tim West analysis please?
IvanLabrie
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Sorry, forgot to include it in my chart.
Tim's my mentor, I apply his teachings and my discretion to perform analysis.
We focus on different markets, but I must watch the Nikkei to trade yen pairs.
B120626
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Interesting, thanks. I can only see the Nikkei 225. Does the Yen influence the N225 like the SPX influences the USD? I know the Yen has the inverse effect on the SPX.
IvanLabrie
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Yes, exactly.
Big part of the GDP has been QE induced for Japan.
The Nikkei direction gives a good idea of what the Yen will do.