TNasr

LTC... not out of the woods yet

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   萊特幣 / 美元
Dear all! In my last post (LTC... still teetering April 8) I noted that LTC has shown no clear direction up or down but that a recent pattern of price movement does not bode well. I think according to technical indicators this may have changed though direction is still not clear. We have recently seen some bullish indicators manifest. Specifically there has been a bullish MACD crossover (denoted with a downward pointing arrow) and a notable bullish divergence as far as RSI is concerned (denoted with a dashed white line, above MACD and below the chart) but LTC is NOT out of the woods yet from a Technical Analysis perspective.

For context please note that you are looking at  candlesticks , each representing one day in a chart whose scope is just over 2 months. From the chart we can see 4 (highlighted by yellow ellipticals) instances where Fibonacci levels served as support; but were subsequently broken to the downside, and 6 (in light blue) which have served as resistance. I will not focus on the Fibonacci tool in this write up as we are too far away from the most meaningful levels. Instead I want to focus on volume .

LTCs price behavior, like may coins, may depend on that of Bitcoin             but in the most recent leg up LTC has been lagging; your guess is as good as mine as to why and this could easily change in the future, look at the run up from Feb. 6 to the 20th for example. Following from the first paragraph above we are not out of the woods yet. This is for several reasons. In the most current run up we broke a downward sloping resistance line but this is the first of four hurdles to clear with the 50 and 20-day moving averages and the .786 Fibonacci still overhead. If and when we break them volume  on any such move will also be important because per 4 downward sloping magenta lines at the bottom of the chart we have seen decreases in  volume (after an initial upward pop) leading to decreases in price and I'm concerned this pattern may repeat itself. Please look carefully at two white downward facing arrows within the chart (similar to the arrow in the MACD box). VOLUME validates the strength and authenticity of price moves in any direction and we have already seen higher than recent volume on an upward move on Mar. 9 which did not lead to a trend reversal so I am concerned that the volume in the most recent pop (second white arrow/ April 12) is not sufficient enough for a trend reversal as well.

Within the current levels as long as we don't dip below 106 (the start of Fibonacci levels) an argument can be made for being neutral. Also note the 50 day MA is slowly converging towards the 200 at the point of the sad face but I don't think they will necessarily inevitably meet plus remember that MACD has shown a bullish crossover if only with respect to shorter time frames. In my last post I wrote "Long term, and potentially in as little as under a month this bear market could be over and we will be headed up but the technicals have to show us evidence of that." and technicals are beginning to show just that but VOLUME is a concern. If you find this info useful please give this post a thumbs up. Lastly I want to emphasize the importance of studying contrarian views to your own. If you are long any given coin study short opinions and vice-versa, also be flexible and willing to change your mind, be like water.
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