So I have been talking about this already in my last idea, but I figured I'd start a new one with this as the cover page. I think LTC has a falling wedge formation on the daily chart, ABCDE, having just been rejected from the downtrend line at D. We haven't closed a candle at 100$ yet on the daily chart. I think we need to see a candle close on the daily chart at 100$, at E, where we can see a wick down to the 85-90$ area to test the rising bottom trendline. If LTC breaks out of the top trendline, then this viewpoint will have been invalidated. for now, I think it's time for LTC to move back down to that rising blue line. but we shall see.
fib retracement levels from last bottom to last top are pretty much a road map of supports and resistances. I'd throw one more in there at 124.50 as that level has been pretty reactive.
when viewed on smaller time scale, we can see that LTC broke down the uptrend line, bounced on the fib retrace level, and has been pinballing back and forth in the little gap between them
the line we just bounced from is important.. you can see it connects many big important tops and bottoms. and also forms a parallel channel to the lower blue trend line
scroll up to see all recent updates.. I update often and post more than one chart per point some times. I think this line can be considered the true Head and shoulders neckline, if this line is broken, then a major line is broken.
I have added a lot of charts tonight.. make sure to scroll up to see this entire update. When I extrapolate these two lines back, they meet together at the baseline at 90$. Lots of arrows pointing at 90. Gonna be really interesting to see how reality plays out. the chart is pretty much drawing itself
LTC bounced at the neckline (blue arrow), then went up to retest the support that broke resulting in the last drop (green arrows),and now breaking down the rising wedge (red arrow)
When the LTC fork occurred LTC was leading the pack and the other coins made similar weaker moves.. and now that BCH is forking, BCH is making a strong move while the other coins make similar weaker moves.
we broke out of the top of the big down channel.. on log scale.. so my idea appears to have been invalidated.. my approach to things will be drastically different going forward, may just start looking for forks lol.
I bought the log channel breakout with a stop just below, I can't claim to have seen this first, but if this inverse H&S breaks out and confirms a 4hr candle above 165, then LTC can see 220-225 ish by May 15th when the BCH fork happens and a selloff ensues lol
PS. to avoid being irresponsible. The timeline for the 220-225 target being may 15th is more of a joke and less of an actual prediction, although that would not be surprising.
I think if we break this green trend line, we can possibly revisit the top of the blue log channel line and the bottom of the current up channel at the same time.. 152.5 ish
now is a good time to watch for a bounce or a break.. of the 200 ema on the 4hr chart.. log scale. because our last couple of bounces were on this average, and because it lines up with the top of the downtrend channel, the thick blue line. it looks like a nice target for what would be a possible a-b-c correction
so I kept updating this idea in case it became potentially valid again later, which, it may have. lol. this corrective triangle is what makes sense to me here. to retest the 1200 EMA and then later in the triangle the Log downtrend channel line. (thick blue) watching for this and playing it until it becomes invalidated
I have price action trapped between the top of the Log scale downtrend channel, and the top of the regular scale downtrend channel. So I still have this as a wave 4 triangle that is retesting the breakout point, moving into wave 5 down. unless price action goes back through the 1200 EMA and the top of the log channel, which would be super bullish and confirm that we just completed a three wave down correction. until then, still looking for further downside. Just sitting and watching for now
If LTC continues above the 200 EMA on the 4hr chart and then above this last line of resistance at 151-152 ish and closes, I may consider going long there (red arrow)
so price action was rejected from 152 area, forced back into bearish territory. now appears to be seeking new lows.. target 117-118 is now in play. RSI trend breaks have been exceptional in announcing directional changes (red arrows on rsi)
for right now, I see a downtrend break and retest, I see a series of bear flags, and I see price action caught between some pretty hefty support and some pretty heavy resistance. If LTC drops from here and breaks 130 I will be waiting for a chance to buy around 124.5 with a target around 131.5.
the price has been bouncing up and down between the downtrend line on the log chart and the downtrend line on the standard chart (thick blue descending lines. the 50 ema has been pushing down, forming a steeper downtrend than the log channel line. so am watching for this potential falling wedge -down to 120 area
I had noticed that with the first touching of the lower trend line here, the pink arrow, there was an early bottom on the rsi- the blue arrow on the rsi chart. correlates with a higher low leading to the bottom/ touching of the trend line at the pink arrow on the 1hr candle chart. which, is part of an uptrend on the rsi. we have a trend bottom on the rsi at the orange arrow, but price action has not yet reached the bottom of the current falling wedge/triangle. and the heavy support at 124.50. (blue line) I'm guessing we may see a bounce and steady rise in rsi, indicated by the pink line I drew in there, while price finds the support/wedge bottom at 124/125. (small red arrow on 1hr candle chart.)
so we have price back above support at 124 ish, green arrow, and a trend break on the rsi.. the trend breaks on the rsi have been dead giveaways for bounces.. lets see if everything goes to plan here
I have re-adjusted the top trend line to fit all tops, seeing the first two tops at the ATH as thrust. This H&S target at 80-85 scratches all my itches. can't wait to see this all play out
this channel looks nice.. see a trend break on the rsi and a channel bottom, support touching. may be getting a bounce here.. a revisit of the top of this channel would be in the 130 ish area
also could see it run flat back to the top of the channel.. something like this. then batch the bottom of the channel again at 100, and interestingly the bottom line of this channel strikes the lower trend line at 85 ish..
could see a scenario playing out, with one of those falling wedge fake breaks down, where my original idea could indeed come to fruition. not that it will, but it's not out of the question
for right now I have to also consider the possibility of this shorter term bullish scenario, what looks like maybe an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with an interesting target of 133 ish, which would take it into the resistance area, and to potentially meet up with the 200 EMA. (red arrow). Interestingly, along the neckline of the inverse H&S, there is the 50 EMA, which has been the capper as of late. would also be a breakout of the current downward wedge as I see it. (green arrow) worth noting and watching.
quick update to get the trend lines laid out. we can see that the pink line which formed a triangle was broken, and then the last two weeks were spent confirming that line as resistance. now that price rejected from the pink line, we catch support on the yellow trend line. probably (in my opinion) - the next move down will be down to the falling wedge line on the daily (blue) and the next one down would be the green line, which is the floor, if my idea is correct, which, remains to be seen.
currently watching an inverse head and shoulders formation - testing the neckline -with an interesting target right around 100.00 if it were to break out and confirm
tradingview.com/x/nfKxcNew/last night I was considering the possibility that my idea was incorrect, because there was a daily candle closing below what I was considering the bottom of the falling wedge on the dily log chart. this happened to me early on in this idea, where I thought a line had been broken, and I assumed my idea was over... until I tried moving the trend line a little, and then it all fit again, so I did that as well this time, and with just a tiny wiggle was able to make it all fit again, into a falling wedge on the daily log chart.. so, will continue to moniter
as we can see we had a bounce on the blue line, down to touch the green line, and then two more tests of the blue line. as indicated by the arrows. this is the one hour chart, I will post a daily chart showing the big picture next.
daily chart with the big picture. support/resistances in yellow and important trend lines are blue for the downward wedge channel, green for what I have been calling "the buy line", which is a very long term resistance/support trend line. and has been the line to buy on for years now apparently. and then orange and pink for other long term major trend lines that have proven supportive and resistant. scroll up for a closer view of recent price action
I have also just found this new red support line, connected by wicks. there is a lot of big time critical support coming together here, underneath current price action. this is a great place to be forming a bottom. if these huge supports break then that would be super duper bearish . if they hold, it could be super duper bullish from a TA stand point imho
now I'm seeing price being squeezed into a triangle here, with an inverse H&S taking shape, with breakout and confirmation of a 4hr candle closing above 97.5/98 ish. I've had a couple of formations break out over the last few weeks and come up short of their targets.. on each of those occasions I was able to take note of a weaker volume at breakout. so be sure to be watching for strong volume at breakout to be confident that the target may be hit. this inverse H&S has a target around 110, but there is pretty hefty resistance around 106/107/108 ish as well. I accidentally posted this first in the comments and it wouldn't let me copy and paste. hopefully it transcribed okay
I like your drawing of the trendlines extending from the ATH. I tried to apply that idea to my BTC chart. I was able to draw 5 lines radiating down. I was then able to use the pitchfan and surprisingly, many of the lines lined up. Have you tried to apply the pitchfan? Is there a special name for the "trend lines radiating from the highs"?
I really dig that your three extended lines point back to the 90 mark. I can also visualize one more line, above the current highest (of the three pointing at 90); it also seems that it would converge on about the 90. Is there a search term I can use to find more information about that topic? Again I have been drawing similar lines on my chart, it is interesting.
k34733
β
@k34733, After turning on the pitchfan 0.75 line, it matches up with my 5th trend line and points out one that could have been drawn between the first and second lines from the left. Go figure....
Snuby3
β
@k34733, its pretty cool.. I'm not sure, to be honest, I just kind of started connecting any and all trend lines i can find, looking for patterns, seeing if they line up or point to anything. Any time I have a trend line that I'm working with I extrapolate it in both directions to see if it touches anything important
Snuby3
β
@Snuby3, I'm not sure about possible search terms I mean.
Snuby3
β
@Snuby3, I come up with these grids, and the price action bounces along through the grids, reacting to every single line.
k34733
β
@Snuby3, I like your idea and will be testing it on all of my charts. Thanks for the info.
Snuby3
β
now I'm seeing price being squeezed into a triangle here, with an inverse H&S taking shape, with breakout and confirmation with close of a 4 hr candle above 97.5/98 ish. ive had a couple of formations that came up short of their targets over the last few weeks, and on each of those breakouts I took note of weaker volume at breakout.. so be sure to be watching for strong volume on those breakouts to be confident that the target may be hit. the target of this inverse H&S is in the 110 area but there is hefty resistance around 106/107/108
k34733
β
Can you believe we are finally here? I will be watching patiently for the bounce. Do you have another downward target?
Snuby3
β
@k34733, next support areas i see are 80 and then 65. no kidding, it's been a long time eh? 6-7 weeks?
k34733
β
@Snuby3, Too bad more people aren't following this idea. You have done a great job and have been very accurate. Thanks for the hard work.
I really dig that your three extended lines point back to the 90 mark. I can also visualize one more line, above the current highest (of the three pointing at 90); it also seems that it would converge on about the 90. Is there a search term I can use to find more information about that topic? Again I have been drawing similar lines on my chart, it is interesting.