an expanding diagonal looks to be forming in litecoin, the count could be seen differently, the A wave as the composite of the A and B that I have drawn but the current drawing seems valid considering we've broken and closed below the support line on a 4 hour candle. an upward expanding diagonal is a very strong indicator of reversal. The stoch rsi is showing we are oversold and mac D is not yet crossing bullish, but looks like it could soon, both of these indicators are very reactive and i find that they are better for shorter term trades. With that info it seems that we could be heading up in the short term to the 259 range (a pretty strong resistance if you look at the wicks testing it as well as the 50 fib of the parabolic rise from 96 to 420) if the bulls manage to rally. If we get there its important to pay attention to what happens next, either we break back into the channel on a candle close and go long, or bounce off of the support and take profit. If we retrace further I would personally expect price to at least go to the .618 Fib around 220. It's also possible that we tank from here as well.
trading and technical analysis are about probabilities and not certainty, committing to one viewpoint can make you blind to others and cause panic when the reality contradicts preset predictions. This game is not about being right its about making money. With that said litecoin and bitcoin are currently heavily correlated as seen in the graph below.
Bitcoin is going through a lot at the moment: coming off a near 9k usd correction, china (estimated to have mined 3/4^ths of the current bitcoin supply) cracking down on bitcoin miners (recent news), slow transactions, low throughput, high fees etc... with many people questioning its use cases the only fundamental reason for it to rise is the awaited technology upgrades which are still not yet guaranteed to come. bitcoin still offers the largerst network of miners, decentralization and security and makes a great use-case for a store of digital value but with so much piled up against it, at least for the next month or two I see it dropping to key supports at the high 12k area and consolidating before the real bounce back and resuming of the parabolic rise we are used to. With the two so correlated then, I can't bring myself to count out a further retracement for litecoin as well.
trading and technical analysis are about probabilities and not certainty, committing to one viewpoint can make you blind to others and cause panic when the reality contradicts preset predictions. This game is not about being right its about making money. With that said litecoin and bitcoin are currently heavily correlated as seen in the graph below.
Bitcoin is going through a lot at the moment: coming off a near 9k usd correction, china (estimated to have mined 3/4^ths of the current bitcoin supply) cracking down on bitcoin miners (recent news), slow transactions, low throughput, high fees etc... with many people questioning its use cases the only fundamental reason for it to rise is the awaited technology upgrades which are still not yet guaranteed to come. bitcoin still offers the largerst network of miners, decentralization and security and makes a great use-case for a store of digital value but with so much piled up against it, at least for the next month or two I see it dropping to key supports at the high 12k area and consolidating before the real bounce back and resuming of the parabolic rise we are used to. With the two so correlated then, I can't bring myself to count out a further retracement for litecoin as well.
評論:
to be clear this was short term bearish, I have high hopes for litecoin
