Current rising wedge formation has very good credence. Heavy resistance line just overhead in the 145 area from a long term trend line that stretches across the 100 double bottom. A break down from here would result in a retest of the lower long term trendline. I believe LTC is now testing the top of the actual channel or long term triangle(blue line) and if the lower black line is broken we will see LTC go very low to complete a very big a-b-c correction.
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from now on im using log scale because the 155 cup and handle target would have actually made sense to me there. i tended to not feel confident in the formation, because it did not line up well with my resistances on charts, but, on log chart, it hits the channel line at 155... so here is a big view, a year back to last march on the daily chart. to get an idea of what is going on overall
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looks like a year long upward trend from march to march has been broken there..
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on this log chart, daily candles, LTC price action is about to make contact with the downtrend channel line right at my 155 cup and handle target from my last idea..
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SO. On log scale chart, LTC price action has reversed from the downtrend channel line at 156-157 ish, just as expected, and is forming a bear flag just below the resistance. easy call here, if the bear flag breaks down, we going down more. target for the next stop down if that happens is 137.5. If something crazy happens and LTC breaks out of the bear flag, and then through the top of the downtrend channel, then we can buy and go long.
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bigger picture..LTC clearly having just tested the downtrend line and been rejected.
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I think these are the lines to be watching for breaks right now. Red rising support line, and the Blue downtrend line - squeezing price action into a triangle formation
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I'd like to discuss things I see. On the daily chart, we haven't had a close at 100$ yet. we closed at 124$, with a wick down to 100$ (coinbase) So my thinking is, that if LTC fails here at the top of the triangle and breaks down the red line, then we should see LTC close a daily candle at 100$, and also form a wick down to the very long term blue support line around 85-88$, and closing candles down to that line on shorter time frames. That blue line would be super critical to hold at 85-88$ in my opinion.
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meant to include the last top at 90 ish, so we can see why I think LTC should reverse at that point. Confluence of heavy support in that area
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Hard to find a well defined support and resistance boundary on the longer term charts.. found one on the 15m. looks like a rising wedge, approaching the heavy resistance at the top of the channel. also has a small head and shoulders building inside. Target for the bear flag is @ 133ish, head and shoulders target is 135ish, there is some good support @137.50 area so I'm watching the 135-137.5 area for a bounce if the support is broken. If the blue resistance line gets broken, would be a buy/hodl signal.
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misprint: Target for bear flag is 133-134 ish, target for small H&S is 140ish
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if it breaks down it could end up making one of those little stairstep moves down, tapping 140 ish with a quick fomo bounce, and then countinuing down to 137.5 area, possibly overshooting it before correcting. making both targets valid. let's watch!
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went a bit higher, and then I discovered two downtrend lines being reacted to by price action.. the one on candle charts, and the one on line charts. on line charts, the downtrend channel line rejected price action
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been watching this Head and Shoulders form last couple days.. lines up perfectly with my idea, breakdown/completion is a close below the neckline @141 ish, my idea is that we may get a neckline retest from 137.5 area up to 141-142, down to 125, up to 130-132, down to the bottom of the wedge again at 116ish. if the support holds then we may see a slow climb to retest the top of the channel, but seeing as how the head and shoulders fits my overall forecast perfectly, and we are still in a bear market downtrend, (trend is my friend) I'm leaning toward 116 still. so far everything is still as I saw it
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I really like this falling wedge on the daily. close a candle down to 100, wick tests the bottom trendline, which- is due for a testing in my opinion- at 88ish. this all makes a lot of sense.. lets watch!
Thanks for the great analysis, the next week will be very interesting indeed.
Looks like it will get rejected one last time.
Snuby3
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@Hubris, i'm also looking for another rejection here. that was a good call
vaidas911
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Shorted already?
Snuby3
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@vaidas911, I actually sold at 162 a long time ago, and then started day trading this last move up.. I'm currently fiat, waiting for another buy signal.
@vaidas911, I don't think I can do that on Gdax can I?
vaidas911
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@Snuby3, not using Gdax, but i don't think it's difficult to find one (Kraken, Bitfinex)
Snuby3
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@vaidas911, gotcha. thanks for the suggestion.. I've been charting and learning TA for a while, seem to have some talent for it, but am still learning how to actually trade based on my ta. lol. I'll look more into it.. thanks again
Looks like it will get rejected one last time.