LTCUSD: 229 Break Out Can Lead To Test Of 265 Resistance?

LTCUSD update: Price action presents a shallow retrace which has established a minor higher low at 212.50. Higher lows often lead to higher highs, so if you missed the earlier buy signals in this market, a new one may be in order, BUT it does not come without some increased risk.

Since the turn around in BTC, the coins have all established bullish trend lines. As long as the markets can stay above these trend lines, higher prices are more likely. In the case of this market, the trend line support is at the 205 area. In terms of waiting for a more attractive buy signal, this level would be more appropriate since it has structure and proportion behind it. IF this trend line is broken, that does not mean the market turns bearish, it just means the current bullish momentum is changing (possibly to a more range bound environment).

There are two ways to participate in this situation:

The aggressive way is to buy the bullish breakout. That would be in the form of price breaking above the counter trend line which is around the 229 area. This choice carries more risk because you are buying right into the 231 to 265 resistance zone (.618 area relevant to recent bearish structure). Buying this breakout is betting that the resistance will be cleared now that momentum is bullish. This requires agility because any sign of failure after the breakout can lead to a retest of the lower 200s. If it follows through instead, you will have a position that has a reasonable target around the 300 area (2.618 extension measured from 106 low). If you use the 200 area to define risk, R:R is 2.3 which is worthwhile for a swing trade in my opinion. The question is, are you willing to take a 30 pt or greater loss if the market turns?

The conservative strategy is to wait for a possible retest of the 200 level, followed by bullish reversal signs such as a pin bar, etc. In this scenario you are still betting that price will push through the upper resistance zone, but you are getting a much better price. IF this market breaks below the 200 area, it is more likely to continue as a consolidation rather than a retest of the 106 lows.

If you are new to these markets, following analysis like this in a literal sense will not help you be successful. The idea here is to provide a perspective or range of ideas that you modify and make your own based on your personal risk profile. The best thing you can do is learn what factors are being considered and figure out how to interpret this type of information on your own. Following any analyst, whether they are on here or anywhere else still puts you a step behind because you do not have the confidence that gave the author the reason to share their respective ideas.

In summary, this market is showing a formation that presents an opportunity. How you participate in this opportunity depends on what kind of risk you prefer to take. IF the bullish trigger occurs at 229, and you buy, you must accept the possibility of the immediate fake out and failure. If you recognize the signs, you can get out earlier. These types of decisions must come from you, your process and your risk profile. Expecting simple "predictions" and outcomes from any analyst is unrealistic. You must be proactive in your decision making process and know ahead of time what type of trade you want to participate in along with a set of specific outcomes. This structured decision making is what your "plan" should help you accomplish for every trade you take, whether its a day trade or position trade. Managing my position trade, I am looking to participate in both scenarios and temper my risk with size since I am in this for a broader move. Price breaks out, I will look to buy smaller. Price retraces to 200? I will look to buy bigger. My risk is managed with my size.

Questions and comments welcome.