Fibonacci Retracement Analysis
The retracement is drawn from the local high of $107,925 to the low of $80,745.
Current Battle (0.382 Level): The price ($91,310) is currently piercing through the 0.382 Fib level ($91,130).
Significance: This is the first major hurdle for bulls. Closing the daily candle above this level suggests the recovery is sustainable and not just a "dead cat bounce."
Next Resistance (0.5 Level): The next target is $94,335.
The "Golden Pocket" (0.618 Level): The most critical trend-reversal level is at $97,540. This is often where bearish algos reload their short positions. A break above this level confirms a macro trend shift.
Bollinger Bands & Moving Averages
Middle Band (20 SMA): The blue line (Middle Band) sits at $96,874.
Technical Insight: Notice that the Middle Band is currently above the price. This means the immediate trend is still technically bearish. The price often gravitates toward this mean ($96k) to test it as resistance.
Confluence: The Middle Band aligns very closely with the 0.618 Golden Pocket ($97,540). This creates a "confluence zone" of heavy resistance between $96k and $97.5k.
The "Red Path" Projection (W-Pattern)
Impulse: Price rallies to the confluence zone ($94k - $97k).
Correction: Price pulls back to set a Higher Low (likely retesting the $87k - $91k region).
Breakout: Price blasts through the previous high of $107,925.
Target: The extension target is the 1.618 Fib at $124,720.
Diagonal Resistance Break: Look at the thick green line going downwards. The current candle is actively breaking out of this diagonal trendline. This is a classic breakout signal.
Critical Levels Cheat Sheet
Level Price Action/Note
Target 2 (Extension) $124,720 The bullish "Red Path" ultimate goal.
Major Resistance $97,540 The 0.618 Golden Pocket (Must break for bull run).
Dynamic Resistance $96,874 The Middle Bollinger Band.
Immediate Support $91,130 The 0.382 Fib (Needs to hold as new floor).
Critical Support $87,160 The 0.236 Fib. Losing this invalidates the rally.
Floor $80,745 The recent low.
The retracement is drawn from the local high of $107,925 to the low of $80,745.
Current Battle (0.382 Level): The price ($91,310) is currently piercing through the 0.382 Fib level ($91,130).
Significance: This is the first major hurdle for bulls. Closing the daily candle above this level suggests the recovery is sustainable and not just a "dead cat bounce."
Next Resistance (0.5 Level): The next target is $94,335.
The "Golden Pocket" (0.618 Level): The most critical trend-reversal level is at $97,540. This is often where bearish algos reload their short positions. A break above this level confirms a macro trend shift.
Bollinger Bands & Moving Averages
Middle Band (20 SMA): The blue line (Middle Band) sits at $96,874.
Technical Insight: Notice that the Middle Band is currently above the price. This means the immediate trend is still technically bearish. The price often gravitates toward this mean ($96k) to test it as resistance.
Confluence: The Middle Band aligns very closely with the 0.618 Golden Pocket ($97,540). This creates a "confluence zone" of heavy resistance between $96k and $97.5k.
The "Red Path" Projection (W-Pattern)
Impulse: Price rallies to the confluence zone ($94k - $97k).
Correction: Price pulls back to set a Higher Low (likely retesting the $87k - $91k region).
Breakout: Price blasts through the previous high of $107,925.
Target: The extension target is the 1.618 Fib at $124,720.
Diagonal Resistance Break: Look at the thick green line going downwards. The current candle is actively breaking out of this diagonal trendline. This is a classic breakout signal.
Critical Levels Cheat Sheet
Level Price Action/Note
Target 2 (Extension) $124,720 The bullish "Red Path" ultimate goal.
Major Resistance $97,540 The 0.618 Golden Pocket (Must break for bull run).
Dynamic Resistance $96,874 The Middle Bollinger Band.
Immediate Support $91,130 The 0.382 Fib (Needs to hold as new floor).
Critical Support $87,160 The 0.236 Fib. Losing this invalidates the rally.
Floor $80,745 The recent low.
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