Everything looks good here for Natural Gas. I will be buying UGAZ here and sold my DGAZ Monday Feb. 13, 2017.
Chart Positive Trend with a buying opportunity. I will continue to buy dips as I eye the trend line and MACD 0 line.
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NatGas showed a decent divergence on lower time frames, with a shot at one more buying opportunity. Chart looks to be shaping a diamond, reliable pattern that kicks out massive volatility once completed.
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I'll be usuing UGAZ a X3 ETF. Plan is hold less than 3 months and target a new high or near high with UGAZ
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Bought 1k Shares of UGAZ in the after hours Feb. 16, 2017
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Breaking through and holding a daily close above second resistance will add to my confidence going forward. However, I set a Stop loss with UGAZ set at $18.70.
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It's been an ugly trend, but the light at the end of the tunnel is near.
thanks to Gabby_1994
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Closed trade / sold DGAZ far too early and missed the biggest move. Nat Gas 2.70 broke and learning lesson from miss trade, always wait for a confirmation / buy - sell / on time frame beyond 1 hour and more appropriately 1D+
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To be learned: Also, be cautious ahead of upcoming US holidays. You might be trapped in a position and not be able to Buy/Sell when alert trigger goes off.
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A-shot
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So you check the 1h timeframe, but recommend make decisions on 1D? or 1H still?
QuantitativeExhaustion
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@2use, right the mistake was looking at intraday signals and buying a swing position.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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@2use, I'd start with 1W and work my way down to a 4 hour chart, scanning for momentum and divergences.
A-shot
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@QuantitativeExhaustion, I should say that my interest is indeed because of this supposed mistake. From one perspective a divergence does start somewhere and cutting losses early is good. But one can start seeing things at times, or other ways going in too detail. Generally i follow the daily - but at times i do see some movements in advance, usually sharp ones - and i won't wait for the end of the day to form the candle. but with this, does the 4h make a difference vs daily for you? And if you swing, is it 4h you are making decisions on? Even though you start with weekly?
QuantitativeExhaustion
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@2use, I would say there is also the volatility factor when choosing what time frame to consider a swing trade, holding more than a week, and intra-day trading, flipping transaction that can be less than 5 minutes.
Natural Gas and other commodities are trading at extreme volatility levels. So we should probably look for signals that are closer to the daily chart rather than 1+ hour charts (which I'll exam for low volatility trades). Why? Because you'll run into more noise when you have more volatility.
Swing Trade
Momentum/Divergences/Trends/Trend lines/Support/Resistance/Patterns/Harmonics/Candlesticks .. all should be considered when looking for a confirming trade. I'll start scanning for these on Monthly chart - Weekly Chart - Daily Chart - 12 Hour (if commodity or Forex) - 4 hour - 2 hour (next to least priority) - 1 hour (least priority) ...
A-shot
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@QuantitativeExhaustion, If you start from weekly, but decide to take an entry on a good 1h point, is the exit to be on 1h, or you think that if the idea is based on weekly or daily, only when that reaches indicated levels?
QuantitativeExhaustion
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@2use, I would take a position on daily/weekly, and if I were to be active in the trade -- selling/buying a fractional portion of my initial position using buying power -- I could use the 1 hour chart. But in this case the confirmation of a swing trade was never observed so if anything I should be looking to stay in the negative trend and be playing DGAZ.
A-shot
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@QuantitativeExhaustion, Thanx for the clarification. Things do happen and trades get missed
QuantitativeExhaustion
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@2use, It's all about the process and learning from what you did right or did wrong.
XTAL.ball
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I'm long from 2.95. Do you think UGAZ hits $60 by the end of March?