Break the top this time

# NIFTY FUTURES - High Probability Channel Bounce Setup 📈

## Current Price: 26,252.70 (+11.40, +0.04%)

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## Technical Setup Summary

**BULLISH BIAS** - Multiple confluence factors suggesting a move toward channel high

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## Key Observations

### 1. **Channel Structure**
- Price currently at the **bottom of the ascending channel**
- Channel has been respected multiple times, providing reliable support/resistance zones
- Clean breakout and retest pattern visible

### 2. **Support Confirmation**
- Price has **tested the breakout (BO) support level** and held
- This previous resistance (around 26,250 zone) is now acting as support
- Strong bounce from this level indicates buyer interest

### 3. **Double Top as Poor Low**
- The double top formation at the channel high is creating a **poor low structure**
- This often leads to price retracement to fill the inefficiency
- Suggests potential for upward move to retest those highs

### 4. **Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)**
- **Rising VWMA** indicating increasing participation with upward bias
- VWMA acting as dynamic support
- Price trading above key moving averages (42, 3, 24)

### 5. **Risk-Reward Profile**
- **Entry Zone**: Current levels (26,250-26,260)
- **Stop Loss**: Today's low (very tight risk)
- **Target**: Channel high (~26,500-26,550)
- **Risk-Reward Ratio**: Excellent (approximately 1:5 or better)

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## Trade Plan

### Long Setup:
- **Entry**: 26,250-26,270
- **Stop Loss**: Below today's low (26,200-26,220 area)
- **Target 1**: 26,400 (Previous resistance zone)
- **Target 2**: 26,500-26,550 (Channel high)
- **Risk**: Very low due to tight stop

### Key Levels to Watch:
- **Support**: 26,239 (Today's low), 26,200 (Channel low), 26,050 (Tested BO support)
- **Resistance**: 26,400 (Nifty FRI2), 26,500+ (Channel high/Double top)

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## Confluence Factors ✅

✓ Bottom of ascending channel
✓ Tested BO support holding
✓ Double top creating inefficiency
✓ Rising VWMA showing strength
✓ Tight stop loss = Low risk
✓ Multiple timeframe alignment
✓ Volume confirmation at support

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## Conclusion

All technical indicators align for a potential move to the channel high. The setup offers an asymmetric risk-reward with a tight stop loss at today's low. The combination of channel support, breakout retest, and rising moving averages suggests buyer strength at these levels.

**Bias**: Bullish for a move toward 26,500+
**Risk Level**: Low (tight stop at today's low)
**Timeframe**: Short to medium term

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*Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Please do your own analysis and risk management before taking any trades.*

**#NIFTY #NiftyFutures #TechnicalAnalysis #ChannelTrading #SwingTrading #NSE**