There is little question that the fundamentals have pulled the carpet from underneath this export-dependent economy, and that a slumping Asian theater demand will do nothing supportive for this currency.
However, on a technical basis, there is a possibility of a Bullish Shark reversal at the 0.81335 level. This pattern is often flanked with its acolyte, namely the 5-0 pattern, whose namesake points to a 50% retracement of the Shark conclusive swing.
Overlay of predictive/forecasting model has produced the following probable targets - listed in expected chronological visits:
1 - TG-1 = 0.81335 - 10 SEP 2014
2 - TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014
and
3 - TG-2 = 0.7866 - 10 SEP 2014
As indicated earlier this evening in the Forex Intel Room (link: tradingview.com/chat/ ):
"ANZ hit target on its NZDUSD Short circa 0.82 (Medium-Term) at a profit of +400 pips"
This major bank's relief of its bearish pressure on the NZD supposes that a lightening up of institutional weight combined with above proposed technical reasoning, may indeed provide the mechanical lift to see it rise to the defined targets above.
I will continue to use this chart to post NZD-related charting and technical commentaries, including occasional Forex Intelligence on major banks' FX positioning from linked room above.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
"Danske's limit order to Short AUDUSD (Short-Term) got canceled "
This is tantamount to cancellation of a USD long position - Prepare to see major USD crosses reflexively react to a possible BEARISH USD push. Keep an eye on this possibility, especially here, as we approach our first target:
- TG-1 = 0.81335 - 10 SEP 2014
A BEARISH USD would indeed provide the reversal mechanism necessary to rally back to the next forecast target: TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
fximperija
⋅
David, can't really say it's a shark, missed 113 AB-C preojection, although, the 88.6 looks like a support, and possible 5-0 node for a 50 fib ret. Than again, neither the potential shark, nor 5-0 met the basic criteria of 113.
fximperija
⋅
Can't believe I was wrong for such a long time. Thanx for pointing this out.
4xForecaster
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You are welcome - I erased the original entry (there were simply too many typos).
Your comment is in reply to the comment I made earlier, which are now posted below.
Thank you for your humble understanding and flexibility of the mind.
David
fximperija
⋅
:) Off topic: You intrigued me very much with the Euclidean models, so digging deep into the subject. If you have and I know you do, any reference you used regarding Non-linear Euclidean, please do let me know. [would save me time of finding the right material]. Thx in advance.
4xForecaster
⋅
@fximperija, honestly, I am not sure what you are talking about in regards to reference you believe might be in my possession. A lot of what I have learned is self-taught from readings over the years, starting in College during my architectural research and trips, to the present, where I remain in constant state of predisposed learning about the occult, the odd and the twisted, all being one and the same, but read from different tolerating mind's eyes -
The Euclidean name I gave to my module is based on the Euclidean rule, which defines the smallest divisible component able to relate itself to all other larger shapes, and capable to maintain a same relationship across all shapes that sprung from it (at least, it''s my own geometry-based definition - Original definition is simply a series of axiom proving one simple line related to a larger set of lines, all the way up to complex geometries and algebraic expressions. In this manner, the Euclidean Module is a "geometric axiom", holding one simple 2-dimentional truth of itself, and yet defining the larger price action is proportion to itself.
Nodes and Nodules are not part of the Euclidean Modules, but would need to appear as support and proof of intrinsic correspondences between these shapes. I spent lots of brain-deadening hours peeling a chart into shapes, and the Euclidean module is what emerged from it.
There is no other knowledge in this head of mine, and no other purpose but to hold it for sharing sparingly, and on other occasion to hold a hat atop it.
David
fximperija
⋅
Alright mate, with your architectural background you lean more towards visual representation. I observe the visual [geometric] from a mathematical stand point - geometry is visual representation of underlying mathematical expressions. Being a we developer [programmer] I tend to look at numbers and various mathematical correlations , equations and expressions that has a geometric presentation as a result. What I was referring to is Non-linear Euclidean geometric, spaces and algebra. Everyone I know from the trading world is trying to predict upon past events while I'm trying to predict upon present events and finding the correlation between present and past events. The most sophisticated trading algorithms has been built on mathematical expectations and probability taking into consideration past and present events. Finding the right weight in evaluation of data is the key for more accurate prediction - data mining. The process of data evaluation has a result the decision support system.
dojitrader
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Forgive the over simplification, but, as I read about the Euclidean rule,
a thought flashed into my mind that asked:
Isn't the trading axiom of "Broken resistance becomes support
and broken support becomes resistance" and as such targets the next
level of a larger degree a simple example of what you're expressing
in a more complex way ???
I ask because of all the complex ways of trading I've seen, simplicity
has always given me the best results. Perhaps that is because, after
A and B's in Algebra and Geometry, I hit a brick wall with Trig and Calculus.
As always, thanks for all your great dissertations, methodologies and
helpful explanations !!!!!!
"Danske's limit order to Short AUDUSD (Short-Term) got canceled "
This is tantamount to cancellation of a USD long position - Prepare to see major USD crosses reflexively react to a possible BEARISH USD push. Keep an eye on this possibility, especially here, as we approach our first target:
- TG-1 = 0.81335 - 10 SEP 2014
A BEARISH USD would indeed provide the reversal mechanism necessary to rally back to the next forecast target: TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014.
Cheers,
David Alcindor