A bird's eye-view from the monthly chart offers a probable geometry-based play, as illustrated in the following monthly chart:
In essence, there are two levels to consider: A probable resistance and a lower support, based on simple structural analysis, and complemented by the Geo's own geometry rules.
STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS:
Very simply put, there are two kinds of resistance/support levels to consider in any structural analysis, one that is based on a horizontal (static) level where prior price action projects forward a probable S/R level, and one that is based on a sloping projection (dynamic), typically off of a geometric pattern, where the line is likely to impact price as a similar R/S level would, but along its forward projection.
In this particular chart, the upper price action will have to face both of these types of resistance, first at the projection of the smaller Geo's 1-3 Line (dynamic resistance line), as well as at a horizontal (static resistance line) zone corresponding to the same smaller Geo's price level of Point-4, consistent with the Geo's Off-Set Rule - This is at about 0.77000.
Following is the Weekly chart's view, illustrating this upper level:
The lower level offers a probable supportive floor, which consists of a speculative 1-4 Line (dynamic line of support, using the largest plot in black), as well as a historical static line near the 0.61590 level, as illustrated below:
OVERALL:
Interim rally is expected, as price may uncoil from a bearish pressure, now that RBNZ's decision passed. However, this is expected to be limited, as per above analysis.
Further analysis in smaller timeframes (typically H4 level) will serve to follow price action in finer resolution.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
In the interim since the original analysis, price declined and found support along the 1-4 Line of the dominant Wolve Wave (GREEN arrow). The original outlook remains the same, expecting a rally into the structures pre-defined above. The most palpable resistance might occur at the projection of the 1-3 Line of the smaller geometry (ORANGE arrows), although a ceiling is expected at the price level of Point-4 of the same geometry.
Both of these levels are valid, as price might carve an Elliott Wave correction in the current rally, stomped at the orange arrow and complete its 5th wave bearish impulse before correcting to the red arrows. This is merely looking at a synthesis of Elliott Wave development, existing structures and a Predictive/Forecasting Model that rests at a net positive outlook.
Unfortunately, I have not been able to analyze a DAIRY chart from the Global Dairy Trade site (globaldairytrade.info/en/ ), and I wish that this would be available on TradingView, as it would add substantial support to the analysis of this otherwise whimsical pair (reliance on its agricultural exports, which in turn depends on the immediate Asian markets, especially China. Put a mix of reaction to metals, and the overall fundamental basis becomes too fluid).
Best,
David Alcindor
cooney_s
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Great analysis David. Thanks for sharing your views. This pair is a beast and confusing. Yet, overpowering larger currencies. Thanks again!
cooney_s
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What about Nonfat Dairy futures....they seem to have a pretty good correlation. "DF1!"
cooney_s
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Actually, looks really good to me. The futures surely seem to have "leading" effect. Large price adjustments are followed by Kiwi. GDT auction results always have a huge impact on Kiwi pricing.
4xForecaster
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@Coondawg71 - Very cool. I have looked at DL1, but not at this DF1 - Thank you for this suggestion!
David
cooney_s
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David, You are quite welcome. Powdered assets....Anhydrous Milk Fat, Butter Milk Power, Skim Milk and Whole Milk Powders apparently make up a large part of the auction. I imagine they would be since it is an globally exported asset. I don't know, haven't been to a dairy auction yet...new bucket list addition?!?
4xForecaster
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Ha! I'd go to NZD just for the fun of it. Auction mild. Sure, why not.
Here is the a relative strength chart of the currency against Dry Mild (DF1!):
1 - Elliott Wave contracting triangle completed at point-e with signature undershoot before forceful rally (typically the ensuing slope following point-e completion has to be steeper than most of its preceding rallies during pattern formation ... It's definitely true here).
2 - A larger Wolfe Wave or Geo is developing ... If this larger geometry is true, then we are in for VERY expensive milk ... Which is what the other DAIRY chart I had posted earlier seem to indicate as well:
... And here are the Class III Milk - MONTHLY chart, showing the gist of an ending decline into a 5-wave bearish impulse. The reaction into a rallying in the price of mild (using this chart as a general proxy for milk pricing) would have more to do with the decline in the relative strength chart than a decline due to a weakening NZDUSD, although the combination of the two would most definitely bring down the house:
DL1! - Monthly chart as of today:
... And for good measure, here is NZD as of today, which seems to have moved significantly up as forecast:
David
4xForecaster
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Yes, @Coondawg71 - In one of the pre-analysis rooms ("commodities | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster, here is the link: tradingview.com/chat/ ), I do follow a dairy related commodity, but it is not as specific as GDT is to NZD response - Here is the chart I posted a little while ago:
In the interim since the original analysis, price declined and found support along the 1-4 Line of the dominant Wolve Wave (GREEN arrow). The original outlook remains the same, expecting a rally into the structures pre-defined above. The most palpable resistance might occur at the projection of the 1-3 Line of the smaller geometry (ORANGE arrows), although a ceiling is expected at the price level of Point-4 of the same geometry.
Both of these levels are valid, as price might carve an Elliott Wave correction in the current rally, stomped at the orange arrow and complete its 5th wave bearish impulse before correcting to the red arrows. This is merely looking at a synthesis of Elliott Wave development, existing structures and a Predictive/Forecasting Model that rests at a net positive outlook.
Unfortunately, I have not been able to analyze a DAIRY chart from the Global Dairy Trade site (globaldairytrade.info/en/ ), and I wish that this would be available on TradingView, as it would add substantial support to the analysis of this otherwise whimsical pair (reliance on its agricultural exports, which in turn depends on the immediate Asian markets, especially China. Put a mix of reaction to metals, and the overall fundamental basis becomes too fluid).
Best,
David Alcindor