NZDUSD: Fundamental/Technical Strategy & NEW Quarterly Target

Fundamental:

NZD's falling retail sales q/q supports a bearish view of the currency. The central bank kept a rate decline on hold; however, they lowered rates several times last year. The central bank also wants their currency lower (spoke it live in TV, lamenting Trump..lol!!!). This keeps me on the sell side of NZDUSD despite being stopped out several times last year.

What's more, the US central bank is suppose to continue to raise raise this year. Yellen's semiannual Congressional testimony on February 14, 2017 was not as bullish as in December. You can just sit there and watch her fade a little, being dogged by the ignorant politicians, yet maintaining her composure. She mentioned, "another area where the tie between the labor market and inflation may not be as strong as thought" and she said regarding the labor market and wage increases that "It’s unclear that they have much direct effect on inflation generally.” <--- Makes you sad and want to sell the dollar if you don't understand. http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/janet-yellen-congress-february-2017

Yet, the Fed is not behind the rate hike curve, so don't listen to the pundits; listen to reality: www.bloomberg.com/ne...s-gradual-rate-rises


NZD PPI Input q/q on February 19 (today!!) and GDT Price Index on he 21st may be the culprit that pushes up NZDUSD to 0.7284.

Technical:
(1) Weekly engulfing bearish candle at a major resistance area
(2) Drop below support.
(3) No changes in my weekly video last week, so no need to update. Maybe I will: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrO41tn4XUE&t=1s

Stop: 0.7250ish or 70ish. If broken, then I will look to short around 0.7284.


Initial Target: 0.7065Quarterly Target: 0.7021, 0.6949 and 0.6850


Risk:
(1) TRUMP!!!
(2) GDT Price Index Rising further

評論:

moved stop to break even

交易進行

交易結束：目標達成:

Quarterly target reached!