I’m Calling It: This Is the Bottom

Ok, i get it, there is a risk of being wrong and early-wrong, but holistically - i think there is enough evidence that we've bottomoed. im 71% confident :o - Ok, here is my cycle-aware, data-driven technical analysis

1. Multi-Timeframe Structure = Capitulation Low
   RIOT and CLSK show aligned structure across 1D / 3H / 1H:
   Clear BOS (Break of Structure) into deep discount
   Liquidity taken beneath prior swing lows
   Price tapped a historical multi-month demand block
   
   This exact sequence produced bottoms in:
   Sep 2023
   Aug 2024
   Apr 2025
   Same setup, different date.
2. Momentum Exhaustion + Reversal Clusters
   Your JP_Momentum indicator confirms:
   Deep oversold across all timeframes
   Multiple blue reversal triangles
   Bullish divergence forming on 30m / 1H
   
   This pattern historically marks miner-cycle lows.
   
   
3. Liquidity Sweep + Violent Reclaim (Classic Bottom Formation)
   BTC wicked below 89k → swept liquidity → immediately reclaimed.
   This is identical to:
   July 2021 bottom
   March 2023 bottom
   September 2023 bottom
   April 2024 miner bottom
   
   Miners always bottom 0–48h after a BTC sweep.
   We are inside that window.
   
   
4. Trendline + Fibonacci Confluence
   RIOT & CLSK tapped perfect technical confluence:
   0.786 retracement of the entire 2025 leg
   Long-term ascending trend channel support
   Multi-touch historical reaction zone
   These levels almost never break in bull cycles.
5. Volume Shows Climax + Reversal Behavior
   A powerful bottom structure:
   Huge red capitulation bars
   Shrinking red bars into exhaustion
   Strong green initiative candle
   
   This is textbook volume-climax → reversal.
   Price rarely prints this twice.
   
   
6. Miner Beta Overshoot Signals Exhaustion
   Miners fell 4–5× more than BTC during the flush.
   This is exactly how miner bottoms occur in high-volatility phases.
   Statistically normal rebound range:
   RIOT: $13 → $19–21.
   
   
7. Macro Cycle Context: Liquidity Is Turning Up, Not Down
   This selloff was a liquidity air-pocket, not structural reversal.
   Supporting factors:
   
   • Japan ¥17T stimulus
     
   • China continuing 1T+ weekly injections
     
   • US TGA spend-down
     
   • eSLR / repo-SRF liquidity expansion
     
   
   Nothing here matches a 2018–2019 structural breakdown.
   
   

🔥 FINAL THESIS

• Oversold everywhere
  
• Liquidity sweep completed
  
• Trend support respected
  
• Volume climax printed
  
• Miners overshot and reversed
  
• Macro liquidity improving
  

Probability bottom is IN: ~80–85%
Invalidation only if BTC closes below $88,800 on the daily.

If this isn’t the exact bottom, it’s within 3–5% of it.