The monthly chart in SLV, iShares Silver Trust is revealing a new buy signal that happened after October's price range expanded to the upside.
Silver trades well on the Monthly time frame and has seen many profitable signals in the run-up and collapse. I have not always used the monthly time frame for analysis, but it is definitely an interesting time frame to analyze and trade from based on historical results.
The last distribution zone from 2013-2014 was from 17.75-23.84 ($6.09), which lasted for 14 months with 12 months at the mode of 18.7-19.0. Conservative projection from 19.0 down by $6.09 allow for a move to $12.91 which we have not seen yet. The time of the decline, 12 months, expired in September.
What we do to enter a trade using this methodology is to: 1. Buy over the high of the bar where time expired on the downtrend. 2. Buy a range expansion (September's range was $0.98), so when October was up $0.99 you can enter. 3. Buy pullback's to the mid-point of the range expansion from September's close at $13.87 up to $15.60, which is a rally of $1.73 rally, so the midpoint is $13.87 + $0.87 or $14.74 entry. We sit here at $14.49, so you get a better entry level that the "systematic" approach.
The last buy signal didn't fail, but the sell signal after that worked.
The exit strategy is the high from October at $15.60 and risk a drop under September's close at $13.87.
Tim
14.49 last SLV - 11/3/2015 12:50PM EST
交易結束：達到停損點
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Great trade setups often take a few times to get right. I know the feeling of "wanting to be right" and I also can see the commodity markets are in a flush-out stage here with Copper pushing new lows. It's a rough time to just "buy and hold" because it looks like "buy and hope". The market drifted under the stop, actually, the very tight stop that I placed on this recommendation. I will stand aside and look for weekly range expansion on the upside to jump on board at higher levels. Historically it is wise to buy dips in silver and sell rallies, but prudence calls for me to say something since SLV went under the stop loss. Re-view every day for the next week for re-entry setups.
評論
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I forgot to re-post on this page, but look at the chart and see if you can see where you would have gotten in using the "weekly range expansion rally" that I mentioned. Look for where the market "ADVANCED" by more than the "PREVIOUS WEEK'S RANGE" and that is your buy signal. The upside target was spot on. Close stops can really hurt trading results, but they limit losses and often limit profits too.
Tim 12/7/2016 1:50AM EST
評論
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Here's the chart with weekly range expansions to re-enter:
The last one is monstrous and it almost hits the target on that bar. Note how none of them were fully retraced until after the target was reached.
評論
Victor.Y.F
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Thank you Tim! Nice to see this post again!
A-shot
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Actually the set up still works - is at the volume spike now
Victor.Y.F
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Thank you for you update, Tim. Nice evacuation^^. I think this is the moment called extreme speculative sentiment. To be realistic, I reviewed my 3-3-5 flat strcture and if XAU daily close under 1076.19 and XAG daily close under 13.717 then I will close my position.
Victor.Y.F
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I have to say this at this moment: because EURO will drop to 1.03-1.04 area for completing multiple harmonic patterns, XAU and XAG could drop new low for hunting stops to rise. I will hold my XAG long for very long term. So be patient.
Victor.Y.F
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Almost there, with SPX500 nice drop.
timwest
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And a 12-month 45% distribution also identically matched ...
Nick_C_
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Great chart.. Although I'm confused about the initial 12 bar mode count from the high, as it looks to be 13 before the RE lower. Also, is the consensus now to not include RE that still touch the mode as part of the mode?
d1gopher57
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looks like this will fail to confirm upside expansion. Dollar too hot. I tired long myself.
Victor.Y.F
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Hi, d1gopher57, please do not use trend strategy, watch out Dollar harmonic patterns.