Overall, market is down but could be in final stages of down trend from 2012 highs
Monthly Chart
In the March/April time frame, the DMI changed to where the -DI is dominant. The ADX continues to trend down signaling whichever dominant trend is not that strong. Current targeted support is 8.910. Though, there is an area in the +/-8.000 range that has provided support in the past. With the ADX approaching 20, it is possible that the 8 range (green on monthly chart) provides support for consolidation before next major trend develops.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart has a more bearish definition to it.
DMI - A sell trigger was hit the week of 3/6 at 9.972. The -DI is dominant so the TRIX will be used to drive exit and potential re-entry.
TRIX - On week of 4/10, the TRIX signaled a potential exit. Price did close above this line during week of 5/1 but next week failed to follow-thru. So, weekly traders would have remained in trade. This week (5/29) will verify the down trend is continuing if TRIX holds below HMA.
Daily Chart
The daily chart has provided several sell triggers with most recent at 9.356. Price is currently sitting on previous support at 9.035
4hr Chart
The 4hr chart has several interesting concepts on it.
(1) A sell trigger occurred on 5/17 at 9.562
(2) The TRIX indicated a cover of short on 5/18. With next period follow-thru, the short would have been exited
(3) A buy trigger occurred on 5/21. However, there was no follow-thru so a long position would not have been taken
(4) When the ADX drops below both DI's and/or 20, trend trading should be put on hold and a price pattern for consolidation should be identified. From the consolidation, look for a breakout to trade. Some potential items to watch are:
DMI - During this time, there were several triggers but only last had follow-thru
TRIX - The TRIX dropped below 0 (bearish) and then pulled back but remained below 0 before continuing down again with the next trigger
(5) Sell trigger at 9.361 with follow-thru and new short entered
(6) A developing continuation pattern. I've seen these occur when the next time frame up (daily in this case) is developing a sustained trend. The TRIX/HMA combo indicate a new res->sup line but price fails to close and hold above it. If not stopped out, then continue to hold short.
Monthly Chart
In the March/April time frame, the DMI changed to where the -DI is dominant. The ADX continues to trend down signaling whichever dominant trend is not that strong. Current targeted support is 8.910. Though, there is an area in the +/-8.000 range that has provided support in the past. With the ADX approaching 20, it is possible that the 8 range (green on monthly chart) provides support for consolidation before next major trend develops.
Weekly Chart
DMI - A sell trigger was hit the week of 3/6 at 9.972. The -DI is dominant so the TRIX will be used to drive exit and potential re-entry.
TRIX - On week of 4/10, the TRIX signaled a potential exit. Price did close above this line during week of 5/1 but next week failed to follow-thru. So, weekly traders would have remained in trade. This week (5/29) will verify the down trend is continuing if TRIX holds below HMA.
Daily Chart
4hr Chart
(1) A sell trigger occurred on 5/17 at 9.562
(2) The TRIX indicated a cover of short on 5/18. With next period follow-thru, the short would have been exited
(3) A buy trigger occurred on 5/21. However, there was no follow-thru so a long position would not have been taken
(4) When the ADX drops below both DI's and/or 20, trend trading should be put on hold and a price pattern for consolidation should be identified. From the consolidation, look for a breakout to trade. Some potential items to watch are:
DMI - During this time, there were several triggers but only last had follow-thru
TRIX - The TRIX dropped below 0 (bearish) and then pulled back but remained below 0 before continuing down again with the next trigger
(5) Sell trigger at 9.361 with follow-thru and new short entered
(6) A developing continuation pattern. I've seen these occur when the next time frame up (daily in this case) is developing a sustained trend. The TRIX/HMA combo indicate a new res->sup line but price fails to close and hold above it. If not stopped out, then continue to hold short.
評論:
Daily SOYBNUSD has either put in a bottom at 9.035 or in process of a correction. Because the DMI and TRIX/HMA are in contention with each other now, holding of on a position until either the TRIX or DMI show trend is continuing down. New resistance line in place to watch to see if price can close above and follow-thru.
評論:
Soybeans setting up a potential head fake to suck buyers into the market. Even though the daily and 4hr look like price is bouncing of good support, I think this market is hitting significant resistance and is setting up to move lower.
4hr Chart
resistance is at 9.364 and price needs to close and hold above this to continue up. The DMI looks like the up trend is running out of steam with divergence with price in +DI and the ADX having peaked above both DI's and now turning down
Daily Chart
9.356 is resistance line that has to be closed above and held in order for up trend to continue.
Bottom line: I think price holds at current levels week of 2017-06-11 then continues down
4hr Chart
Daily Chart
9.356 is resistance line that has to be closed above and held in order for up trend to continue.
Bottom line: I think price holds at current levels week of 2017-06-11 then continues down
評論:
As a possible trade here, a sell at the market with a stop at 918 in the July Soybean futures.