Seit 1997 sind die US-Aktienmärkte an den letzten drei Handelstagen vor Thanksgiving überwiegend angestiegen. Im historischen Durchschnitt hat sich die Aufwärtsbewegung der US-Indizes am "Black Friday" (Tag nach Thanksgiving) fortgesetzt. In vielen Fällen ist anschliessend direkt danach die Weihnachtsrally gestartet.
Es gibt derzeit keinen erkennbaren Grund, dass es dieses Jahr anders sein sollte.
Chart - Aktuelle Investitionsquote US Fondsmanager
NAAIM Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses. Chart via Link: naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-ind
'Stealth hedging' shows investors not so complacent
Some investors warn that heightened reliance on strategies that profit from continued calm in stocks, and months of frustration over hedges that have gone to waste while the market powered on, have left the market extremely vulnerable to a shock. Boom-time complacency should top the worry list for investors, according to participants in the recent Reuters Global Investment 2018 Outlook Summit in New York. The options market, however, suggests that investors are not as vulnerable to a sell-off in stocks as the anemic level of the VIX would suggest, analysts said.
For instance, for the S&P 500 index options, there are 2.1 puts open for each open call contract, close to the most defensive this measure has been over the last five years, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert data.