The percentage gains for several US stock indices on 9/27/17 are as follows : RUT +1.92 IXIC +1.15 NDX + .96 SPX +.41 DJI +.25 The highest quality index DJI had the smallest gain while the lowest quality index RUT - small caps had the biggest gain. This is the exact opposite of what you would see in a healthy bull market. In addition of the big 3 US stock indices - SPX, DJIA, and IXIC only SPX made a new all-time high. None of the market leading FAANG stocks, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, and GOOGL made new all-time highs The SPX had a huge hourly RSI bearish divergence as well as daily and weekly RSI bearish divergences. Only 2 of the 9 SPX sector ETF's - XLI and XLF made new all-time highs. Last week The Bullish Consensus reading for US stocks was 71% this is the highest reading for the entire 8 year bull market. September to October is seasonally the most bearish time for the stock market.
Evidence is overwhelming that that the 34 day Mini Crash Phenomenon that I discovered could occur. New target bottom date from 9/27/17 top targets 10/30/17 for crash bottom.
Mark, I appreciate your analysis. I am also bearish for the reasons you've sketched and more. But I've been short since early August and it keeps rising. Do you have any speculations about how high it could rise before the fall you've forecast?
I suspect that todays 9/29/17 relentless buying is end of quarter window dressing.
Today the SPX could hit 2520.
No targets above that level.
October is a seasonally a bearish month.
With October about to begin "Time" is the important dimension.
If 10/4/17 is not a down day it could mean the rally continues.
The SPX will need to be down for the week of 10/2/17 to 10/6/17 to open the door for more downside.
Thanks!