Published via phone. Trade based on your risk tolerance.
Red vertical line indicates possible time for when SPX/DXY reaches Up Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) phase.
From the left, yellow vertical lines represent Buying Climax (BC), Secondary Test (ST), and Up Thrust (UT).
Orange rays indicate typical resistance prices that coincide with a phase transition.
Price typically breaks above BC price during UTAD.
Teal rays help to corroborate Wyckoff pattern when compared to Wyckoff Distribution chart.
If accurate, expect price to drop far below bottom teal ray once UTAD completes.
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Note: Don’t assume Spx and Dxy move inversely to each other. The charted price can rise or fall concurrently despite Spx and Dxy moving same direction. For instance, if both rise but Spx rises more then charted price will rise. If Dxy rises more then charted price will fall. Similarly, if Spx and Dxy both fall but Dxy falls more then charted price will rise. If Spx falls more then charted price will fall.
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Note: Also, Wyckoff does not dictate that price must reach UTAD. A downturn can happen without UTAD.
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Sharing a comment that I made in chat today: Downturn could come as early as 2 Dec - Tvix 10-to-1 and Viix 5-to-1 reverse swaps. Historically, these swaps have come at market decision points with only bear traps. However, could be the real thing this time around.
Very fine analysis, tyvm for review of Wyckoff phases. The Three Drives to Top are clearly evident in this chart from 28 Oct - 27 Nov...! RSI has weakened and daily volume is nil at these prices.
Fibonacci time on the current UTAD is at 55 days on 11/27. Might have completed then, confirm in week of 2 Dec. An extended Fibo time cycle could go to 89 days, reaching to Monday 30 Dec.
Teklologist
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@DaddySawbucks, it is a very telling chart. Good input on the three drives and RSI. Did you happen to see my latest comment about Tvix and Viix reverse splits?
DaddySawbucks
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@Teklologist, Aha we are online for holiday lol; no let me go look at it now!
DaddySawbucks
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@Teklologist, Aha I see it now has updated; yes agree the VIX when it finally pops could be a ten-banger; I am in Jan $15 and April $20 calls, a large position, as well as UVXY ETF, which has been just crushed!
Fibonacci time on the current UTAD is at 55 days on 11/27. Might have completed then, confirm in week of 2 Dec. An extended Fibo time cycle could go to 89 days, reaching to Monday 30 Dec.