Dear friends. I want to express my opinion on the US economy. Based on the SPX500 index and graph, it can be seen that the trend for economic growth has changed to negative. We all know very well that economic growth is not possible without a crisis. The vertical growth of the economy forever can not be. 2019 will be very difficult because of trade war and politics USA. Do not miss the chance to earn short positions.
There is one thing that could save us this time... interest rates are less than 3%, and when they reach 3%, the Fed will pause. During the previous two crises, interest rates were as high as 6.5% (2000) and 5.5% (2007). So this time there is something different, rates are under 3%. I still think we could see this correction fall to 2,100. We may see a rally in Jan/Feb, with a retest of the low in March. Usually, March has a reputation for testing lows and setting bottoms. Any rally coming up in Jan/Fed should be traded, on the expectation that March will once again follow its reputation as a bottom setting month (March 2003 and March 2009 were bottoms).
jwebbs999
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@WorthAShot, certainly possible, but it seems unlikely interest rates will change overall market sentiment at this point. I think we are already committed to this correction.
WorthAShot
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@jwebbs999, Oh, yup. I absolutely agree the correction is not over yet. I'm looking for 2100 as the first real major support. I just think we usually see a bounce or two, where a short-term rebound up turns into a retest of the low, which is likely to happen in March. Call it an A-B-C, where A is this week, B is a shallow rally by end Jan or early Fed, then C coming back down to 2100 in March. I'd be interesting in seeing if anyone on this site might look at that scenario with a graph to see how likely or unlikely it may be.
Commodity_Whisperer
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same as mine
Power_of_Shitcoin
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I think it's wrong!
WasiRehman
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I predicted the crash :)
WorthAShot
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@WasiRehman, Great call! Nice job! Only thing I would change is to buy a little bit around current level (small amounts) and add a little more on the way down (in small amounts again). Eventually it will break the double top, maybe in a year or two (or three or four or five). This way we would have a more profit from buying so low. A major index fund is best (avoid picking individual companies). I like 3x funds because we'll get triple the gain on the way up. It may take a while to move back up, but at some point a new high will be hit.
WorthAShot
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PS... The reason I think 2100 is possible support is because it was major resistance going up, back in 2015 and 2016. And usually a previous major resistance becomes the new major support. Let's hope it holds!