Since the financial crisis of 2009, productivity, business investment, labor force participation and wage growth have all been significantly below trend. Asset prices have "recovered", although this is only the result of speculative borrowing due to low interest rates. GDP has not seen a year of growth over 3% since 2007. This pathetic rate of growth is currently SLOWING DOWN. Let's not even get into the Debt to GDP ratio. The bottom line is that if we were actually in an economic recovery, the Fed would be RAISING RATES. As Donald Trump said in the presidential debate the whole economy is a "big fat ugly bubble". It is no longer a question of "if" but "when".
Since 2015 the S&P has been trying and trying again to push through the 2120 level. In July we finally saw it happen and the index remained above this level and stagnated for about 8 weeks. Then in one fell swoop crashed back down to 2120, tried to rally back up, failed and is currently sitting on this nearly 2 year price level.
I will be short the S&P from this point forward until either stops are triggered or targets hit. I believe that if the market falls below this level there will not be much hope for it to break back through again for quite some time. The North American Equity market at this point seems to be exhausted.
Please do not hesitate to leave your thoughts and comments!
The best of luck to all, IceTrading
Since 2015 the S&P has been trying and trying again to push through the 2120 level. In July we finally saw it happen and the index remained above this level and stagnated for about 8 weeks. Then in one fell swoop crashed back down to 2120, tried to rally back up, failed and is currently sitting on this nearly 2 year price level.
I will be short the S&P from this point forward until either stops are triggered or targets hit. I believe that if the market falls below this level there will not be much hope for it to break back through again for quite some time. The North American Equity market at this point seems to be exhausted.
Please do not hesitate to leave your thoughts and comments!
The best of luck to all, IceTrading
交易結束：達到停損點:
Stops triggered but that does not change my fundamental. The carnage in the bond market will have immediate effects on interest rates which is very negative for the stock market. We will see when the Fed raises rates this December how the stock market reacts to this. We will see if investor confidence is still at all time highs. It will all come out in the wash and it could happen as early as tomorrow - black Friday. The day when the American people are obliged to go out and do their patriotic duty to spend money they don't have on imported goods that they can't afford. Markets are generally irrational in the short term, especially in the aftermath of the Trump Presidency. But like I said, if the Black Friday Numbers are bad, the Stock Market will certainly react negatively.
