S&P 500 (Bigger Consolidation before hitting 2500 less likely)

FX:SPX500   標準普爾500指數
Hi fellows. S&P 500 is dipping again watch for buy on trend line in case we breakdown the trend line then look for buy on previous low. I think that this is not the fall the fall most investors are looking for on this pair. I am anticipating new high at 2500 in coming days.Watch lower time frame for entry. Good Luck
評論: Watch bottom
評論: Watch TCP and continuation if do not continue then but it at bottom again
評論: Watch we may see another correction again.
Coming days? Do you mean coming weeks? It took 4 days for the S&P to wipe out the last 20 trading days worth of gains. It would take a similar amount of time to climb back to old highs. 20 trading days is one month. In one month, the Fed will start letting MBS and treasuries mature without rollover (no repurchase). This is essentially the same thing as selling from current levels of the $4 trillion balance sheet. Selling 20 billion a month and incrementing up to 50 billion a month is a lot of selling. I don't think anyone realizes how big this is. Most uneducated people don't understand QE in the first place, so there's no way they can understand QT. But it's basic economics. Supply and Demand. The Fed is the largest buyer of bonds. They will now be the largest seller. This will push interest rates up, thus making bonds more attractive vs equities, and money will rotate from equities into bonds. It's that simple. Also, earnings margins are reaching an inflection point and topping, so 2 good reasons why the upside in equities is limited, and not only that, it may be the time to go short in a few months, and hold for the next 2 years. As I only see 10% more upside in the next 2 years, with potential for 30% downside. The large correction is still coming this year, and imo it comes later, in Sept or Oct.
could you please explain why this time the big correction will not happen?

VIX just broke out from a multi month descending wedge, which to me is an indicator that there will be a pause ths trend of all time highs daily breaking. With this break out, I think bulls would put both feet on the break pedal for some time as bears are now much more in control.

Thank you,

@Mitasse, i believe geopolitical uncertainty gonna settle down in coming week. We are not having war any time soon.
jorv2074 Wave-Trader
@Wave-Trader, Not as long as we have the big mouth orange man in the WH.
Oh_If_Only jorv2074
@jorv2074, @Mitasse, @Wave-Trader

I seem to recall we have had quite a few dems get us into into wars in the past - it is not a rep thing.
However I agree, this time, with W-T. Too many expecting shorts for a correction yet. Wait for more punters, hedge and traders to get long so the short can cause as much collateral damage. It will only crash when no one is expecting it.
... just my 2c worth
jorv2074 Oh_If_Only
@Oh_If_Only, Why don't people read the comments carefully. Did I say anything about Dems vs Rep. I was only talking about the ignoramus orange man in WH - did it touch some raw nerve?
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