Possible 2023 Outcomes

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All red and green lines are approximate clones of the first draw down. Channels are drawn periodically as market changes

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Lower blue line is long term post-GFC regression trend line. Movement may go above or below but will follow this trend line long term

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See my entire chart: tradingview.com/chart/0luKNs81/

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Up/down trend lines are clones of each other. The original was taken from earlier this year.

This trend line doesn't fit all drawdowns/breakouts but it is an approximate fit that seems to co-incide with our trend lines

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Unemployment still at 3.7. Fed Pivot not likely coming. Soft landing still possible.

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To answer some questions i've been getting:

In general, you could expect more lightning bolt shaped movements on the red/green lines. They're meant to show a trend, not really predict the future.

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max pain for 2022 Dec 16th is 390

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It's really fighting that 392 level

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Looks like we lost the trend line and our 392 support. Let's give it a day of follow through to see where it's ultimately going but this looks bearish for now.

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best of luck to you this week with fomc & cpi

we'll soon see where we'e headed

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looking at weekly, we have confirmation of a breakdown. Looking at VRP, not much holding us from 360s. LOTS of selling in the last few days. Just like this last Jun, lots of gaps opening up. went down by 10%. Those gaps didn't get filled for a couple of months.

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Maybe no santa rally this year :(

Market has pulled up to .382 fib retracement from recent down. will we make it to 0.5?

Yesterday, 28Dec22, we had the highest PCC ratio of the year. Hard for market to go down when people keep putting puts in the way