Buyers are currently exhausted, giving dominance to sellers which are early investors that are currently realizing their profits by selling some (or even all) of their positions.
At the Daily and 4H chart, there is a clear bearish divergence from CCI and Stochastics indicators confirmed by a strong sign of reversal from the peak candlestick with a very long wick (yellow circle).
This will occur in the next few days so I would caution everyone to jump into SUBBTC right now.
Looking at the fibonacci retracement levels, SUBBTC is playing with the 23.6% level on 0.00015000 satoshis, but knowing that we have a bearish divergence it will likely go down the 38.2% level on 0.00012700.
Unless there is public interest or great news, it might go down to the next fib level at 50% on 0.00010500 satoshis.
However, I'm still bullish long term on Substratum. I love their product!
This is just my opinion, not a financial advise.
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I would also like to point out the idea that the Daily chart since Jan 9 shows that SUBBTC completed its 5th wave and is currently undergoing an ABC or ABCDE correction.
Since we pierced through 61.8% levels, we might travel deeper to 78.6%
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Just a thought, a bounce from the 78.6% might be unlikely, considering we might be at the start of a bear market for crypto and other markets. Let us all hope for a quick recovery.
However, shouldn't you be drawing your retracements with the entire price action captured by the bars? You seem to be drawing it around the closes. That top candle has a big arse wick that would make a big difference.
I can't argue with where your 38% line is though, it does seem to have bounced off it.
fran_sal
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@isosphere, I don't think it will make a difference even if I considered Jan 9. Price made higher highs (from Dec 25-Jan 8) while Stochastics made higher lows. And I considered the wicks, not the closes.
isosphere
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@fran_sal, strangely your lines move when I click play on the idea. Must be a bug! Thanks for the reply.
FYI Sub will be releasing their beta platform Jan. 15th. There is also a rumor they will be doing a coin burn this month. I would anticipate the price to increase until then but we will see.
afterdarq
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Good analysis, thanks for sharing but just as a comment - a bearish divergence pattern is not a completely valid indicator in such consistently bullish markets we have had in the last couple of months. So caution should be exercised if a short move is to be attempted here.
However, shouldn't you be drawing your retracements with the entire price action captured by the bars? You seem to be drawing it around the closes. That top candle has a big arse wick that would make a big difference.
I can't argue with where your 38% line is though, it does seem to have bounced off it.