Swiggy Base and Trendline BO

6月4日

SWIGGY gains as Morgan Stanley starts coverage with 'overweight' rating; sees 22% upside.
On Daily Chart, it Could Signal a 35% Breakout - Here's the Exact Level Every Trader is Watching

Price Action Analysis:

The chart reveals a classic consolidation phase following Swiggy's IPO debut in November 2024. After an initial surge to highs around 465 levels post-listing, the stock underwent a significant correction, falling to lows near 297 in March 2025. Currently trading at 362.75, the stock shows signs of building a base in the 310-370 range.

Volume Analysis:

Volume patterns indicate institutional interest with notable spikes during key price movements. The stock gained nearly 17% on its trading debut, signalling growing investor confidence in food and grocery delivery firms. The recent volume of 22.31M shares suggests active participation, though lower than peak trading days.

Key Technical Levels:

Support Levels:
- Primary Support: 305-310 (marked by green horizontal line)
- Secondary Support: 297 (March 2025 low)
- Critical Support: 280 (psychological level)

Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 370-375 (red horizontal line marking recent highs)
- Major Resistance: 420-430 (post-IPO consolidation zone)
- Ultimate Target: 465 (all-time high)

Base Formation:

The stock has formed a rectangular consolidation base between 310-370 levels over the past 3-4 months. This 4-month base-building phase indicates potential accumulation by institutional investors, typical behaviour post-IPO as initial volatility settles.

Technical Patterns:
A descending trendline resistance (marked in white) from the March highs is being breached. The current price action suggests a potential breakout from this falling wedge pattern, which is typically bullish.

Trade Setup:

Entry Strategy:
- Conservative Entry: 375+ on breakout above resistance with volume confirmation
- Aggressive Entry: 365-368 on current levels for base play

Exit Levels:
- Target 1: 400 (intermediate resistance)
- Target 2: 430 (major resistance zone)
- Target 3: 465 (all-time high retest)

Stop Loss:
- For breakout trade: 355 (below recent consolidation)
- For base play: 305 (below primary support)

Position Sizing and Risk Management:
- Risk per trade: Maximum 2% of portfolio
- Position size calculation: (Portfolio value × 2%) ÷ (Entry price - Stop loss)
- For a 100,000 portfolio: (100,000 × 2%) ÷ (365 - 305) = 33 shares maximum
- Reward-to-risk ratio: 1:2.5 minimum

Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop:

SWIGGY food delivery business achieved profitability in March, with a current market cap of 83,088 crores and revenue of 15,227 crores. However, the company still reports losses of 3,117 crores, indicating it's in a growth investment phase.

The IPO was priced at ₹390 per share, raising ₹11,327.43 crores, providing substantial capital for expansion. The company operates a hyperlocal on-demand delivery model, connecting nearby restaurants and service providers to customers, with diversification into grocery delivery (Instamart) and logistics services.

The food-tech sector in India remains attractive due to increasing digitization and changing consumer behaviour. Recent antitrust concerns regarding discount practices by fast-delivery companies, including Swiggy, indicate regulatory scrutiny, which could impact future growth strategies.

Risk Factors:
- High cash burn rate despite revenue growth
- Intense competition with Zomato, Zepto and other players
- Regulatory challenges in the quick commerce space
- Market volatility affecting new-age tech stocks

My Take:
The technical setup suggests accumulation phase completion with potential for a significant move higher, supported by improving fundamentals in the core food delivery business, achieving profitability. Follow the Strict Trade Plan as Explained Above.

Keep in the Watchlist.
NO RECO. For Buy/Sell.

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Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

6月19日

交易進行

Testing the Green Zone Again

6月20日

交易結束：目標達成

- Target 1: 400 (intermediate resistance) Almost Hit.
Who took Conservative Entry can Book