IvanLabrie
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USDCAD: Update

FX:USDCAD   美元 / 加元
Since the weekly and daily uptrends pushed us higher, we now face a conundrum. Is this a great chance to rejoin the monthly decline that recently caused a gigantic fall in this pair? Is this a great chance to go long and aim for really high targets once breaking above resistance at 1.31?
Fundamentals seem to suggest fears of bears are overblown, and Canada is in much better shape than traders give it credit for. Positioning shows hedge funds have been net short since July 2017, and gradually covering shorts until now. Most of the unwinding happened after we closed over this area where stops where waiting, most likely, and is almost dont, since they are close to flat according to the Commitment of traders report.

This observation had escaped me, when I made the previous chart, could make a big difference, if we encounter sellers at the monthly resistance around 1.31. If not, the short unwind might take us higher, but it is unlikely given that it would take time to break the resistance, and this would nullify the squeeze thesis. I closed my longs and I wait to short around the 1.31 mark. This would be a position trade, so, we won't use a stop and size the trade to risk 1% of our account with a very wide invalidation for the trade to give room for volatility .
As a bonus, oil             seems to have gained support thanks to the situation in Venezuela lately, and the chart we now have a new weekly mode for a possible contiunuation of the weekly and monthly rally. Upside in oil             is significant, but it's risky to trade it, compared to this trade in the $CAD.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.
評論:
交易進行: Entered a half position, long term entry:
Price rejected from the monthly level. I will average in for the other half gradually. I'll be looking to enter a daily short as well, with a tight stop and low risk additionally.
評論: This is possibly the top...



I added, will add to shorts in the next 2 days as well as placing a separate short term entry with a tight stop today when confirmed in the hourly chart.
評論:
Added another position after breaking under a previous low.
評論: Also shorted $EURCAD with a tight stop and small risk.
評論:
手動結束交易: I banked here and will reenter after FOMC today, I suspect we might make a higher high, and get an even better entry short. Nice little 0.15% gain.
交易進行:

I'm short with a cost basis of 1.28884 for the long term position, we had covered with a profit of 0.12% before.

Looking to take additional shorter term trades with tight stops on the way down, here we have a possible daily opportunity in the making.
評論:
手動結束交易:

This could take a break and retrace, I'm out with a nice gain.
交易進行: Reshorted since support didn't hold.

手動結束交易:

Sadly closed before hitting the target on a fake out but target hit nonetheless, should monitor it to see if it acts as support, or if we get a new trend continuation signal to rejoin the downtrend.
評論: Upside in #USDCAD could be exhausted soon, almost getting overbought here, we wait to reenter shorts soon
評論: Reshorting after today's close, breaking today's low is a good but conservative entry.
交易進行: I started averaging into the short again:
what was the main reason of all this bullish run for USDCAD?
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@aa2016, the reason is probably rate hike fears. I covered the short and avoided losing money here. The time at mode trend in the daily did warn us, since targets were hit, price could reverse briefly...we need to wait to confirm buyers lose steam, to eventually reshort. You're flat?
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I am with you on this, Ivan
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So, if it passes the last high, will not that clear the resistance to for further up?...Go Long. Why Short?
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@aa2016, there is no certainty before FOMC, right now looks like a top. If they make it jump and hit all short stops I'd short, cause the monthly signal is still a short unless over the white box above.
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