This pair is in ugly consolidation for two weeks with very low volatility. We know it: after a period of low volatility follows a period of STRONG volatility.
I have discarded the expanded flat scenario because of the choppy and overlapping price action.
Price is consuming time and that reminds me a triangle.
Thats what i'm considering seriously this alternate count: wxyxz correction with a triangle for X appears to be finishing.
We see price is at the E point of the triangle so its going to exploit very soon. Im opening short positions now because it could be too late tomorrow.
D1 chart count:
Regards
*****************DISCLAMER******************************************************************** This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Most of this setups are for backtesting. Always do your own analysis before opening a trade. Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree).
評論
tradersixsixty6
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Interesting theory. What are your thoughts on this:-
"The only time wave X of a corrective combination can make a new price extreme is when wave W is a flat correction. If wave W is a zigzag, then wave X cannot make a new price extreme."?
Regards, D.
FullTimeTrader
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Hello, thanks for your question, there are some corrections not seen very common. This community is just for that purpose: taking other views in consideration. I have made some research and found this on EWI's FAQS.
"Q. Can wave X go beyond the start wave W in any corrective wave?
Can wave X go beyond the start wave W in any corrective wave?
A. In a combination, wave X can go beyond the start of wave W, but not in a double or triple zigzag. "
tradersixsixty6
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Hello, thanks for your reply. Yes I agree completely, its always good to look at a range of ideas, particularly with complicated corrections. The quote I printed was from an email sent to me by my old Elliott Wave mentor Jeff Kennedy of EWI, after I had quizzed him about a particularly difficult count a while ago, so I was interested to hear your thoughts.
Keep up the great work.
Damian.
FXROB
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What you think about this I am sure you wont https://agree.....https://www.tradingview.com/x/5IcyqujZ/
FullTimeTrader
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Hello, i like harmonics also but you are anticipating too much. The rule are defined for trading the D leg of the pattern. The C leg could have many extensions 1.27, 1.414 and even spike the 1.61. So its a wide range of possibilites right now. Once the C leg is complete the market will tell if price can reach the D leg and fill the cypher pattern. We are followers, not predictors of the market. Regards.
FXROB
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you have right I agree but this is only predictions to watch the level 1.33030 to 1.34230 .
Dany_1990
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Great Explanation about harmonics! I did the same mistakes, Anticipating too much will make the trader upset when pattern goes wrong. Thanks
Bone-Collector-444
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usdcad could easily hit those levels. but iam for 1.27004 and 1.23766. strong bearish move could be in the cards.
FullTimeTrader
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Yes, this targets are short term but price can easily reach even 1.200 (previous wave 4). Regards.
ElPatron.Y
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Double bottom for oil as I'm expecting is supported by this view. 53 max target and fall!
"The only time wave X of a corrective combination can make a new price extreme is when wave W is a flat correction. If wave W is a zigzag, then wave X cannot make a new price extreme."?
Regards, D.