USD/CAD (dollar/loonie), on the larger scale (daily), is overall trading within a Complex Corrective Structure, labeled as Cycle Wave IV (green). The Complex Corrective Structure started unfolding in Jan 2016, with its first leg labeled as Intermediate (A) (red). It took Intermediate (A) (red) about 3 months to complete its Bearish Cycle, which would make us believe that Intermediate Wave (C) (red) would unfold with a similar time-frame once it would commence.
Currently, USD/CAD (dollar/loonie) is trading within the Complex WXY Structure (pink) relevant for Intermediate (B) (red). Minor Waves WXY (pink) unfolded with Multiple Corrective Structures, with Running and Expanded Flats in Minor W (pink) and a Running Flat in Minor X (pink).
Minor Y (pink) is most likely to unfold as a Zig-Zag towards the up-side and a very possible extension within its Minute C (blue). According to our Wave Count, Intermediate (B) (red) will end the entire Corrective Structure with Minor Y (pink) and its last leg, Minute C (blue). Intermediate (B) (red) tested the 50% Fibonacci Retracements of Intermediate (A) (red) and failed to Breach through with Minor W (pink) retracing and leaving room for Minor X (pink) to unfold its Corrective Structure. In our view, Intermediate (B) (red) would need to correct at least until the 61.8% Fibs Retracements of Intermediate (A) (red).
Minute C (blue) is expected to complete its Bullish Swings at the 1.40500 Levels, which represent 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors W&X (pink) but also 161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minutes A&B (blue). Therefore, we are looking at Minute C (blue) to unfold with an extension and complete the Cycle for Minor Y (pink). We are expecting Minute C (blue) to trade within our Channel Trend-Lines (pink), thus gaining Support on the lower Trend-Line before its next Bullish Swing.
After Minor C (blue) would complete Minor Y (pink) and Intermediate (B) (red), we will be very interested in trading the Sell-Off in Intermediate (C) (red).
USD/CAD (dollar/loonie) - BUY & SELL Positions:
Medium Term - BUY: Entry Levels - 1.33800 SL - 1.32000 & 1.30700 TP - 1.38000 & 1.40500
Long Term - SELL: Aggressive Entry - 1.38000 Conservative Entry - 1.40500 SL - 1.43500 TP - 1.19000
* Safety Measures: - When in the green, move SL to break-even or in profit - Watch for Flag Formation and Retracement Confirmation for the BUY set-up