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End of Week Review Sunday 20th January 2018

FX:USDJPY   美元 / 日圓
End of Week Review
Sunday 20th January 2018

Monthly Chart
Candlestick: red bearish candle long bodied and short wicks
It falls back within the parallel lines.
It cannot go above it.

EMA 7, 12, 50.
50 is already above 7 AND 12.

>Downtrend is already established.

BB sd             2
In the top band – but on the bottom edge, will break through if it solidly broke through 111.74 support line.
BB is squeezing.
> it supports EMA analysis – it is on the brink of downtrend.

BB sd             1
Right in the middle of it
> it supports EMA analysis – it is on the brink of downtrend.

Parabolic SAR
Still in the trending up
> It is lagging

Stochastic
80 has been touched, the lines have crossed underneath 80 and are declining.
> Downtrend is already established.

RSI
50 – overbought

ADX
20 – has been declining.

MACD
Histogram = is declining, now the bar is really low
Lines = have crossed, and been declining.
The histogram and lines are both about to cross over to negative territory.

Conclusion
Wait for confirmation at the end of the month to confirm the establishment of downtrend.
S/R level = 114.2 – 112.3 – 109.9.
Plus: there are parallel lines in which it traded.

Weekly Chart
Candlestick red bearish candlestick with short wicks.
It went below the broken support of 111.3.

Chart since April 2017 to Now
Support = 108.2 - 1 time: September 2017
Support 2 = 108.7 – 3 times: August, June (wicks only) and April 2017
Safe support = 110.3

EMA 7, 12, 50.
12 is above 7.
>Declining trend is strong.

Bollinger Band sd             2
Last week = Broke thru middle band.
Now it is in bottom band – on bottom edge of it.

BB is flat lining

BB sd             1
Last week = Broke thru band top and bottom – if break thru support it will break thru bottom band. > it is an early indicator that it is going to decline strongly.
Now it has broken through bottom band.
>Declining trend is strong.

PARABOLIC SAR
Last week: Still shows uptrend
> already showing a downtrend.

Now it is: it is showing downtrend, the dot started 7 weeks ago. This confirm SAR             is a lagging indicator.
?to self: what if I modify the periods (?to which?) to enable it to become a leading indicator?

ADX
Going below 12
- declining

Stochastic
20
>Declining trend is strong.

RSI
Downtrend – 50

MACD
Lines have crossed and is in already downtrend.
Histogram has crossed into negative territory.
>Declined trend has been established.

Weekly chart analy
I will be alert for a strong downtrend if it breaks 110.3 s/r level .
This, if happens, still must be confirmed at eom             .

Trade idea for Feb:
If at EOM             , bearish Marubozu persists and 110.3 has been broken through and 109.979 has been passed strongly.
Enter into a MOCK trade with target of close to SUPPORT 106.4, EXIT TARGET 107.

Review of econ             calendar and business calendar:
US: CONGRESS PASSED STOPGAP FUNDING BILL TILL FEB 16.
BE WARY.

JAP: A slim reduction of BOJ’s BOND PURCHASES this month.
THIS IS AN EARLY INDICATOR OF BOJ’S RAISING RATES.

JPY BOND
26 JANUARY 2018 10.30: JAP CPI             .

Overall conclusion
It will decline – COULD BE a strong downtrend IE TESTING 108.7

Will I jump into the trade this week?
Probably not.
I WANT A TREND TO BE ESTABLISHED.
Wait until end of month then do trade idea for FEB.
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