USD/JPY: consolidation stage

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Current trend

The yen is once again gaining investors’ interest amid a weakening demand for the dollar after ambiguous decisions by US President Donald Trump. An additional catalyst for the fall of the pair was a negative fundamental background for the US currency: at the end of May, weak data emerged on key indices – the consumer confidence and the US construction sector. In addition, the dollar is experiencing a deficit of interest due to a slowdown in the process of curtailing the stimulus program, largely due to a negative trend in inflation . At the same time, there are positive stats for the yen. It is possible that with the weakening of major currencies, the yen becomes a safe haven again.

This week, attention should be paid to the data on the labor market and industrial orders of the United States, as well as releases on the growth rate of the Japanese economy.

In summer, as a rule, the volatility of the US currency decreases, and therefore we should not expect serious fluctuations. Most likely, the pair will stay in a sideways consolidation in the medium term, after which it will grow due to the growing demand for the oversold US currency.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators confirm a decrease in volatility: MACD shows a drop in volumes in the market, and the Bollinger bands are lined up horizontally.

Support levels: 110.50, 109.50, 109.20, 108.10, 107.70, 106.30, 105.50.

Resistance levels: 111.15, 111.45, 112.40, 113.00, 113.75, 114.50, 115.55.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target of 114.50 and stop-loss at the level of 109.50.
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