There are 4 types of traders at this market: the OPEC members, the banks, the moneymakers and the outfreakers. The first 2 is already reserved so you can choose from the last two. The OPEC members are always on the right side of the boat. The banks are 80% in the good direction. The moneymakers have 65% . And the freakouters are losing money in 90% of their trades. I suggest to stay in the moneymaker camp. We are not always right but the long term we are making money. And sometimes we can figure out what the first two group is doing and then we make 10/10 calls in a row.
We had an ICL on the 4th of May. I say now no way to break below 44$ in the following 3 months. On the weekend I will try to summarize what I think on the daily basis but right now I'm watching the clear price manipulation on the hourly chart. :) We are printing a megaphone bottoming pattern. It's a clear manipulated pattern. When the price is breaking down suddenly a buyer comes out from nowhere and pushes up the price again. Then the natural forces are selling again and our hero is back again and pushing price to a new high. It continues while everyone is realizing - or losing all the money - that this is not going down. If it's not going down then we are going up.
This might be exactly the case here. If not down then up... I think in this moments we are breaking up from the megaphone : everyone slowly realizing yesterday's drop was a one day puke. I wouldn't be surprised with a new high by the middle of next week. It's a Memorial day in the US on Monday. How about a big gap open on Tuesday in ERX and XLE what never gets filled?
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Closing above the 10 EMA, 20 EMA, 50 EMA and 200 SMA. Looks good again.
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Bouncing from the trendline
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Ok. Let's see some intervention in oil.
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I'm reopening my e-mail list till 22.06.2017. 0:01 Berlin time. All who wants to join can do it in the next 3 hrs. All who are already on the list got an e-mail a few minutes ago. If you received an e-mail no need to send a message : "pls send me the oil update" If you are not on the list and would like to get the update at 0:15 send me an email to chartwatchers@gmail.com in the next 3 hrs. After 0:01 I close the e-mail list again.
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We are moving to the PI section in oil just as I did at the beginning of this year in gold. I'm not leaving you alone on the battlefield.
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mashru
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Am a big fan of yours Arpi, but will have to differ on this one. I think the fundamentals just don't support the move you are talking of, and I agree with some of the commenters here that the next leg is lower - whether 44 or 36 is debatable, but it does look like its getting there. The GCC nations are having a major in-fight right now (read the news on Qatar and Saudi) and its probably a matter of time before the famous OPEC pact lands into trouble due to cheating by members. The only reason Oil got back close to 50 was the pact, and if that starts being cheated on...36 may be a high price on oil! The only argument for price going higher is the amount of oil China (or the teapots in China) can buy...but whether that can take care of all the excess being produced daily is anyone's guess. As of now, most of the positive news-flow is already built into the price, while the negative surprises aren't. And there are more chances of negative news than positive ones...
NesakysiuVardo
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@mashru, talking about possible positive news
for oil (because overall it is bad news) do not reject that usa/iran terms can change, Venezuela can colapse, NK activities can lead to instability in the markets and with sessonal draws in inventory can lead for price movement up "out of nowhere".
mashru
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@NesakysiuVardo, you clearly seem to be hoping for any of these things to fit your strategy for being long. If you think anything that leads to instability in financial markets can lead to oil going higher, please go back and look at what happened in 2008-09. Trump has many more things to worry about than try and change the equation with iran, for the time being. Venezuela's collapse may only mean more oil coming to the market since whoever takes over may actually end up getting investment into the country's oil sector. Anyways, best of luck on your position. If you are hoping for a cataclysmic event to help your position, then there are enough tomes written on why you shouldn't be doing so.
val_trader
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Arpi, which intervention do you mean? Here we go to 40!!
Hks6996
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Arpi, if oil breaks 47 and heads lower what would the next support be?
thulasi
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apart from wave analysis and fib projection oil on a 4 hr chart forming a nice head and shoulder pattern from may 16 th 2017 till today the neck line is around 48.38 once broken it will fall towards 43.76(previous low) when market falls to previous low or high after a move they usually run for 1.276% fib extension or 1.618% fib extension .Commodites usually runs 1.618% that lies arnd 38$ so my projection for wave 1 of this 3 rd wave(of the 5th and final wave) within reach during which usdcad should trade above 1.3960===1.42
5898928
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@thulasi, oil is up today after big inventory draw, are you still anticipate drop to neckline and down? Why?
thulasi
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@5898928, oil has broken the neck line and its falling
5898928
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@thulasi, nice TP on USDCAD, I am also looking on that flag patter on 1H USDCAD
Josef2016
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Maybe can Usoil turn up from 47,5.If pass It then may go deeper.