Oil's uptrend has been relentless but the advance slowed down to a grind lately, approaching areas of key resistance, where usually supply swamps demand to date. Fundamentals favor the downside here, and I think it's logical to expect a sell off, as OPEC's deal fails to surmount the sale of the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was recently announced, as well as a pro-US shale, pro-exploration in Alaska, etc. President Trump.
This also happens to hurt Russia and their currency, which would be something I'd expect to see favored by the US, to slow down Russia's momentum strategically, at this crucial point in time. But hey 'Didn't Trump praise Putin?', well yes, but: zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-26/us-prepares-sell-its-oil-reserves Despite what the narrative and the rhetoric is, actions of the different actors speak louder, the thing is being able to figure out when fundamentals and logic start to matter more than momentum and social mood. Let's keep an eye on oil around here, if it doesn't hit the target I labeled on chart in time, it's likely to sell off. A move under support, will see oil drop to the levels below as signaled on the chart.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
評論
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We have to see if oil can hit 54,74 within today and the next two days. If it doesn't and the uptrend time expires without reaching the target, we could expect a downtrend to start.
Spot on Ivan! I also think that setting a time expiry to reach certain level is a key element in trading successfully. But how do we actual do that? can you shed some light on it :) Thx
IvanLabrie
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@taming_the_mind, hi, thanks for the comments. I think time and price are vital, naturally. You can expect some proportion between consolitaions, and the eventual moves that occur after breaking out from them, both in price range, as well as time.
My mentor, Tim West, discovered a way of analyzing the distribution and accumulation patterns, and thus, how trends work, which produces good results. You can watch his youtube channel for a primer on it. If interested in learning more about it, message me via pm.
Cheers!
taming_the_mind
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@IvanLabrie, cheers! Thx for pointing out the direction. Wish Many many pips keep coming for you :)