short term remember oil is one of the big leading indicators. trend changes in commodities are fairly easy to read since their usually based on changes in futures pricing ie backwardation or contango. looking at the futures curve it does favor demand for front month/week protection. this will result in IV expansion. so UCO puts/put spreads or calendars may be optimal
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IV (second indicator) is at a fairly low level. so buying a bearish strangle with time may be the best choice. as IV expands expect oil to fall but the options premium will grow
Going forth finding a heavy crude replacement for Venezuela will place refiners in an awkward position. Crushing numbers.heating oil and gasoline inventories will play a key role in the coming months.