What we are trading here is a temporary short term bounce in Oil as risk enters into the picture. The framework we have built around the current macro flow drivers remains the same: (i) Monetary policy divergence; and (ii) Equity/risk weakness via end of cycle uncertainties.
My base case is still for a trade deal to be reached this Quarter but with protectionism at the helm a bumpy path is guaranteed. Those wanting to hedge any escalation in uncertainty around trade can get long KRW 3m implied vol or alternatively find cheap longs for a vol spike in Crude.
Trump barking once more on the foreign policy side by not renewing waivers on sanctions for Iranian exports is increasing noise from the Saudi's.
Thanks all for the support, if we can get this idea to +50 likes we'll keep the intraday flows coming...