Oil is coming close to making a decision. The chart is a bit messy but I hope it is still clear. We determined 3 potential reversal zones and so far the second zone seems to hold. There are several way's to count this correction lower due to the many overlaps. So what is key? The fact that we see many overlaps and 11 waves lower. This is an extension of 3 and therefore likely corrective. I will be looking for a confirmation by means of a consolidation and continuation. Like I said before I'm looking for 60 as minimum for a wave C of larger degree. I expect this wave C to have 5 inner waves and we therefore don't have to rush. Let the first impulse settle (might currently be in progress) and buy wave 3 once wave 2 consolidation is over). If we break lower and make a new low, the whole process starts all over again (but then we are not in the buy trade), however I like to see a corrective count, 11-15-19 etc for a high probability reversal.
We were looking for the reversal and that is confirmed by means of the 1-2-3 reversal on 1 hour time frame. What I don't like for medium term rise in Oil is the extended wave count (7 from the recent low). Off course you might say that bullish move seems impulsive and I agree. However keep in mind that we are dealing with historical lows and volatility tends to increase in those situations. The fact that the strongest move happened in the beginning is not helping a high probability bullish wave count neither. I will be trading the 1 hour time frame with entries on lower time frames because there are just too many valid scenario's on the higher time frames to come up with a high probability wave count. The only thing what is leading in terms of wave count is the chart I posted above where I counted all extensions. Updates will follow
評論
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Guy's go with the flow and keep an open mind because nothing is confirmed yet although the lower time frames present nice trades.
評論
andreas1
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I did the count different... I mean 1,and 2 like you , after that wave 3 extended that finished in your wave 7 , the wave 5 is truncated that is ok with my counting once wave 3 is extended... may be i am wrong.. but this is my point of view...
TimStuyts
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It is good to have your own view, you are trading so you need to make the decision. You make a valid point in terms of why you count it as a truncated wave 5. Nicely done. Let's see how this momentum plays out first. Thanks for your input! Keep in mind that structure is objective only the interpretation is subjective so as long as you can rationalize your case you are not wrong, you are planning a scenario!
andreas1
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Nice chart Tim! now is really seems we are in wave C process, difficult to think we will see soon a back to the 38 zone...but we never know and for fundamental reason not clear oil can reach $60 in the near future, I am really confused to hear so many opinions in fundamental... the chart seems more clear to me :)
I think in the H1 frame we are now still in the wave 1, inside between the IV wave or may be starting the V wave... At anycase i will be out just waiting the 3 wave for nice trade...
forexstock100
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It is very rare for the wave 2 to be a triangle , that is why the structure looks " till now " corrective more than impulsive . I think this scenario has the higher probability , but it is still a scenario needs a confirmation . Thanks , Tim .
TimStuyts
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That would be very rare indeed but are you referring to my charts?
andreas1
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thanks for your clarification. understood!
andreas1
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one more thing... according your count the wave 4 is inside the wave 1 ...
TimStuyts
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That's not a wave count, sorry should have made that more clear. Those are the waves of lesser degree according to my analysis. So we see an extension (7 is an extension of 3). Therefore the whole structure, among other reasons, seems corrective. I was looking for a wave 1 higher but the structure doesn't look good enough for me to say; 'that's most likely a wave 1'. But let's see how this bearish move unfolds and take it from there.
TimStuyts
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A wave 4 can come in the price territory of a wave 1 in case of a leading diagonal (wave 1 or A) or an ending diagonal (wave C or 5). This is a different topic because I only counted the waves to show it is most likely an extension. Hope this doesn't confuse it even more;-). Let me know in case it does so I can elaborate on it.