Hi Pantheo, could you please take a look at the CRB index and Soybean (ZS) charts and give me some insight on where do you see them going next? Thanks in advance!
pantheo
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@JMNIK, Hey, as posted CRB hit TL from highs, demand zone underneath but if completes swing high might go lower on stronger dollar
JMNIK
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@pantheo, Thanks Pantheo. What does this mean for Gold/Silver and Oil? Maybe, just maybe, it can break the trendline later this year and go upto your bearish bat prize in 2019, then dip and test the trendline in 2020, before resuming uptrend again in late 2020.
pantheo
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@JMNIK, Possible scenario but I try not to forecast that long as I can't. It's all about quarter and yearly closings for me and trade each level the market is providing, breaking them down into monthly and weekly TF's. Gold and Silver must close above last years high, at least, in order to see a meaningful rally, otherwise a big drop is still in the cards, when we think that FED is hiking and EM route will require a lot of dollars, hence increased demand. Put euro mess in the mix and you end up with a disastrous dollar rally. Can Oil or Aggs compete with this? Seems unlikely but if you think that we have entered a negative sunspots cycle forecast (solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml), then it becomes likely and means a shortage of foods. If Aggs (wheat, corn etc) close the year above last year's closing price maybe a long term bull market will began. Hope this helps, cheers, P.
@JMNIK, Commercials are net short at -50K contracts, usually bottoming at +80-100K. Don't catch a falling knife, entering demand zone, might react here. A monthly close below 2017 low will probably lead to 2015 low. Entering the worst three months of the year regarding seasonality. Cheers,
@pantheo, Thanks! Maybe it can make it towards 700 in the next 2-3 months and then rise back towards 900-1000 starting in September.
pantheo
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@JMNIK, Huge weekly bullish pin, right at confluence. If dollar topped (if), soy should reverse here and test supply zone. Crucial week coming, end of month, quarter, Merkel, etc, etc, take care. Euro looks like it wants higher, but who knows...