Using the cycle dates, which show dwn till June 22nd, up til 30th :dwn till July 10th. Will cover shorts on any channel break up or post #EIA. I'm thinking this #EIA could give us season low around 42.57 fib. followed by high sub 50.
Anyway is all here..
Maybe it was a mistake not covering on channel breakout, but charts tell me we are weaker than this.. when I look at the cycle chart, the low on the 21st was balls on accurate and this move off that bottom is what we expected. But, "this time" we are seeing the pivot cycle June 21, the long cycle peak June 30, and the short cycle July 11th, all arrive within 21days. This is an extremely short timeframe for these 3 independent waves to cross. Norm is closer to 60days.
Since the 21st was a pivot cycle, we have already completed that move. And since the long cycle should end by this Friday. I plan to hold the shorts through the wave. My guess is it will be a stop hunt anyway. If I'm wrong and we see this break continue through 44.4x, I'll look to maybe add some longs, but I do not expect a real breakout over such a short timeline.
Channel fib also shows (like last time) oil overshot the Is value/DXY when it made the 21st low. DXY remains flat or dropping, and is already below oil again on value. Again different "this time" to the low in early May.
Bottom line, without a war or interruption in prod/delivery (which could happen, and will when we get too low), I believe there is more risk of a downside move than much of a bull run. But I'm prepared to bail on shorts at 44.5... maybe. Once again, the best play would have been to blindly long oil on 21st as cycle chart said.. Good Luck!
All value charts say down, but I've added a long hedge at 43.70. Trying to front-run a squeese on a channel break.. Can afford .40 cents on hedge at this level. My mid-term (30day) bias is Bearish, but cycle chart says we a due for a short bull run. Let's hope it starts today, and no after i get stopped out on the L hedge. Lol
GL. Happy 4th of July!
I see more up, but must to get past 46.97 on 1hr first. Imo. Big fib, falls on channel today. Anouther squeese if breaks in next hour.. otherwise up to Asia. They have lots of room to play..
Few changes, updated channel & long term fibs.
Added new bear channel. Close at 1.00 channel fib on new channel. Watch to see if this channel is broken, otherwise staying short. GL
If move survives Monday US open I may add more .. if it pops before, I'll take coin. As up move will be short lived.. Trump & Putin are bros for now. No musroom cloud just yet... (only thing that will help oil). GL have a safe weekend ..
Long hedge plans..
Closed long hedge at 44.44 when 44.50 fib failed at center channel .
25% short Usoil via SCO . 75%cash
Added shorts, 10%.. will add more above 45, if it gets there?
Added shorts with 46.50 SL. 50% short /cash
Today's short.. on fib chart. I can dump them at 46.50, but I like the downside.
Lower oil shifts market share to US, read: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/15...
First of many.. there is a sweet spot, but I don't think this is it...
All shorts still open.. 40/60 cash
Oh.. Yes, I expect a pullback. Maybe to last short entry 46.18? But 45.94 would be better.. regardless, I'll use value to signal exit if we get close. But I'm not confident enough of a bump to hedge long. Bump could be short and just take stops.. anyway Good Luck
Next pivot date Dec 5th, should be a down pivot from a run up. Maybe from the TL? (Blue)?
Last dwn piviot was right on time, although I thought it would come from a bullish run, not a bear run,.. but still pivoted dwn as predicted.
Also note: In 33 years of futures contract trading, #oil has never been down 10 days in a row... yesterday was day 9. It is due for a bounce even if TL is target.