I don't publish much anymore, but since a cycle is due, this is my play for this upcoming cycle.. 80% of my profits have been trading on sine & time cycle dates, using fibs levels and channels to predict and confirm directional change in trend.
Using the cycle dates, which show dwn till June 22nd, up til 30th :dwn till July 10th. Will cover shorts on any channel break up or post #EIA. I'm thinking this #EIA could give us season low around 42.57 fib. followed by seasonal high sub 50.
Anyway is all here..
Sine wave
History oil
Good luck
Using the cycle dates, which show dwn till June 22nd, up til 30th :dwn till July 10th. Will cover shorts on any channel break up or post #EIA. I'm thinking this #EIA could give us season low around 42.57 fib. followed by seasonal high sub 50.
Anyway is all here..
Sine wave
History oil
Good luck
交易進行:
Opened more shorts. Still looking for a bull run, but so is everyone else. Value says is can go down more. I'm prepared to exit all shorts at 43.30-ish. I still think the bull run will only last about 10 days. I would rather miss the pop off yesterday's low, then miss the next big drop.
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Still Short, I didn't cover my shorts when we broke channel as I suggested I would do. This time is different... lol .
Maybe it was a mistake not covering on channel breakout, but charts tell me we are weaker than this.. when I look at the cycle chart, the low on the 21st was balls on accurate and this move off that bottom is what we expected. But, "this time" we are seeing the pivot cycle June 21, the long cycle peak June 30, and the short cycle July 11th, all arrive within 21days. This is an extremely short timeframe for these 3 independent waves to cross. Norm is closer to 60days.
Since the 21st was a pivot cycle, we have already completed that move. And since the long cycle should end by this Friday. I plan to hold the shorts through the wave. My guess is it will be a stop hunt anyway. If I'm wrong and we see this break continue through 44.4x, I'll look to maybe add some longs, but I do not expect a real breakout over such a short timeline.
Channel fib also shows (like last time) oil overshot the Is value/DXY when it made the 21st low. DXY remains flat or dropping, and is already below oil again on value. Again different "this time" to the low in early May.
Bottom line, without a war or interruption in prod/delivery (which could happen, and will when we get too low), I believe there is more risk of a downside move than much of a bull run. But I'm prepared to bail on shorts at 44.5... maybe. Once again, the best play would have been to blindly long oil on 21st as cycle chart said.. Good Luck!
Maybe it was a mistake not covering on channel breakout, but charts tell me we are weaker than this.. when I look at the cycle chart, the low on the 21st was balls on accurate and this move off that bottom is what we expected. But, "this time" we are seeing the pivot cycle June 21, the long cycle peak June 30, and the short cycle July 11th, all arrive within 21days. This is an extremely short timeframe for these 3 independent waves to cross. Norm is closer to 60days.
Since the 21st was a pivot cycle, we have already completed that move. And since the long cycle should end by this Friday. I plan to hold the shorts through the wave. My guess is it will be a stop hunt anyway. If I'm wrong and we see this break continue through 44.4x, I'll look to maybe add some longs, but I do not expect a real breakout over such a short timeline.
Channel fib also shows (like last time) oil overshot the Is value/DXY when it made the 21st low. DXY remains flat or dropping, and is already below oil again on value. Again different "this time" to the low in early May.
Bottom line, without a war or interruption in prod/delivery (which could happen, and will when we get too low), I believe there is more risk of a downside move than much of a bull run. But I'm prepared to bail on shorts at 44.5... maybe. Once again, the best play would have been to blindly long oil on 21st as cycle chart said.. Good Luck!
評論:
Sorry, Channrl fib with DXY. Above version didn't fully load.
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Added 20% long hedge, manual stop.
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Closed long hedge. Slight loss, back to 25% short.
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Added long Hedge.
All value charts say down, but I've added a long hedge at 43.70. Trying to front-run a squeese on a channel break.. Can afford .40 cents on hedge at this level. My mid-term (30day) bias is Bearish, but cycle chart says we a due for a short bull run. Let's hope it starts today, and no after i get stopped out on the L hedge. Lol
GOod Luck..
All value charts say down, but I've added a long hedge at 43.70. Trying to front-run a squeese on a channel break.. Can afford .40 cents on hedge at this level. My mid-term (30day) bias is Bearish, but cycle chart says we a due for a short bull run. Let's hope it starts today, and no after i get stopped out on the L hedge. Lol
GOod Luck..
評論:
Looking like a short squeeze.. currency flat to wti. We will ride this, maybe into next week. Still hedged .. 40long/60short. Will trim longs on top of channel or by June 11th. Shorts are locked in for now. Idea is to add shorts around 11th.
GL. Happy 4th of July!
GL. Happy 4th of July!
評論:
Still 40/60 short hedged. Updated the channel fibs, much clearer than guesstimate on original breakout.
I see more up, but must to get past 46.97 on 1hr first. Imo. Big fib, falls on channel today. Anouther squeese if breaks in next hour.. otherwise up to Asia. They have lots of room to play..
Few changes, updated channel & long term fibs.
I see more up, but must to get past 46.97 on 1hr first. Imo. Big fib, falls on channel today. Anouther squeese if breaks in next hour.. otherwise up to Asia. They have lots of room to play..
Few changes, updated channel & long term fibs.
評論:
Too late to flip out of long hedge, will hold for a squeeze at 45.14 fib .. if not take breakeven+ on long hedge just below 44.55 fib. But this should bounce before then, I think?
交易進行:
Closed long hedge at 46.33. Still 25% short, rest cash.
Added new bear channel. Close at 1.00 channel fib on new channel. Watch to see if this channel is broken, otherwise staying short. GL
Added new bear channel. Close at 1.00 channel fib on new channel. Watch to see if this channel is broken, otherwise staying short. GL
評論:
Updated. Also added small long hedge. See if we can catch a squeeze off the bottom of this new channel. Still 25% short/ 10% long.. rest cash.
If move survives Monday US open I may add more .. if it pops before, I'll take coin. As up move will be short lived.. Trump & Putin are bros for now. No musroom cloud just yet... (only thing that will help oil). GL have a safe weekend ..
If move survives Monday US open I may add more .. if it pops before, I'll take coin. As up move will be short lived.. Trump & Putin are bros for now. No musroom cloud just yet... (only thing that will help oil). GL have a safe weekend ..
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Long hedge plans..
Long hedge plans..
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Well I thought Asia would squeeze up into US open, no worries on long hedge, bump still possable. More important is this wave, we need to break 44.5 by Friday to maximize this cycle fall and to break the longterm trend line. This looks very good for our shorts at the moment. But may revisit center channel first. Planning on adding more shorts. Good Luck
Monday Charts
Monday Charts
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Closed long hedge at 44.44 when 44.50 fib failed at center channel .
25% short Usoil via SCO . 75%cash
Closed long hedge at 44.44 when 44.50 fib failed at center channel .
25% short Usoil via SCO . 75%cash
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Added shorts, 10%.. will add more above 45, if it gets there?
Added shorts, 10%.. will add more above 45, if it gets there?
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Added shorts with 46.50 SL. 50% short /cash
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Added shorts with 46.50 SL. 50% short /cash
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Today's short.. on fib chart. I can dump them at 46.50, but I like the downside.
Today's short.. on fib chart. I can dump them at 46.50, but I like the downside.
評論:
Still holding shorts.. we closed at Dxy value , was a Dxy bloodbath.. remember oil is as much a currency as bitcoin. Only oil is pegged to usd (for now) ... unless there is war or production/delivery interruption (which could happen) I see too much oil. So value wins.. for the time being.
Lower oil shifts market share to US, read: www.rigzone.com/news...SMideast_Crude_Fight
First of many.. there is a sweet spot, but I don't think this is it...
All shorts still open.. 40/60 cash
Lower oil shifts market share to US, read: www.rigzone.com/news...SMideast_Crude_Fight
First of many.. there is a sweet spot, but I don't think this is it...
All shorts still open.. 40/60 cash
評論:
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Oh.. Yes, I expect a pullback. Maybe to last short entry 46.18? But 45.94 would be better.. regardless, I'll use value to signal exit if we get close. But I'm not confident enough of a bump to hedge long. Bump could be short and just take stops.. anyway Good Luck
Oh.. Yes, I expect a pullback. Maybe to last short entry 46.18? But 45.94 would be better.. regardless, I'll use value to signal exit if we get close. But I'm not confident enough of a bump to hedge long. Bump could be short and just take stops.. anyway Good Luck
評論:
Sine in track.. no changes. Nov 3rd looks like next key spike or top.. Oct 30th-Nov 3rd ATM.. will refine next week . Good Luck.
評論:
評論:
Has been a while s I’ve this was updated... anyway here is the latest.
Next pivot date Dec 5th, should be a down pivot from a run up. Maybe from the TL? (Blue)?
Last dwn piviot was right on time, although I thought it would come from a bullish run, not a bear run,.. but still pivoted dwn as predicted.
2day
Daily
Also note: In 33 years of futures contract trading, #oil has never been down 10 days in a row... yesterday was day 9. It is due for a bounce even if TL is target.
twitter.com/das...847218306048001?s=21
Next pivot date Dec 5th, should be a down pivot from a run up. Maybe from the TL? (Blue)?
Last dwn piviot was right on time, although I thought it would come from a bullish run, not a bear run,.. but still pivoted dwn as predicted.
2day
Also note: In 33 years of futures contract trading, #oil has never been down 10 days in a row... yesterday was day 9. It is due for a bounce even if TL is target.
twitter.com/das...847218306048001?s=21
