Crude oil staged for pop then drop

TVC:USOIL   WTI 原油差價合約
Some thoughts for the coming weeks.

Borrowing 14 month cycle from @smitheric1970 chart (red vertical lines on chart) and considering the previous chart posted that showed ATR reading from 2014 and now.

Since the last 14 month low on 2016/02/17, there have been 4 instances when ADX has moved below 20 (A-D). (A) was brief so won't be considered as usually you need 7-10 days for effect. In 2 cases (B-C) prices broke out, traded $5 in breakout direction then 'V' reversed in a DMI change in dominance for a $10 change.

The 4th is currently in progress (D). Considering the behavior of TSI, that the legs of these breakouts and reversals was ~2 weeks each for both, then my thoughts for coming weeks are:

  • price breaks out of current consolidation to the upside pulling TSI up higher
  • The run will last for ~2 weeks with a target of ~$58
  • Price will terminate in a 'V' reversal
  • During this run up, ATR will drop to a lower level than in mid 2014 at the high for that year
  • The following 'V' reversal and ensuing drop will begin a move that will be more reflective of mid 2014->2015 based on the ATR readings that could be achieved in the next 2 weeks
評論: watching renko for (E) leg of 'M' pattern to complete to look for a long position. 52.30 looks like a key support area and looks like where 200EMA on 4hr will align.

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