Is VALE a good long term investment despite its year goal price?

I am rather new to investing so my apologies if I sound un-educated but I am looking into VALE and am noticing that it is following a trend-line that is going in a positive direction that looks like it is going to break 20 within the next few months. With that being said, the one year price target is set at $18.88 per share so is this hinting that there might be a sudden decline regardless of the positive signs it is giving?