Binary_Forecasting_Service的FX_IDC:XAUUSD的3600/4000 DRAFT 11-1

3600/4000 DRAFT 11-1

Introduction - Bulls are setting up for a double bottom with a "V" reversal. This means the median will hold. This means 2500-ish on or before 05/23. This does not mean a straight line there though, because medium term 2-way vol is set to stay high all the way to June.

Details - See previous drafts for how we got here.

Warning - If you are new to this game, this is not for you. This is a continuous forecast that changes all the time. The whole point of this is to STAY RELEVANT which requires continuous updating. As long as I keep updating you will be fine. Therein lies the problem. I am in a big jam with my time and do not know when the last day for me is and it could very well be today. But as with all things, we don't know until we know.

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1) in chart above... now it's too fast
2) if it moves straight down NOW ... and holds for a few hours
3) I'm not sure this is the right call for V bounce...
4) see?

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1) 11:18 PM ET, 2310.xx
2) after 2304.xx bid/ask
3) really if it pulls the vertical here...
4) the floor is deeper ...
5) at like 2297
6) and it's 2310.xx as I type... so there should be a second leg

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7) alright this is so annoying now..
8) I'm going to bed
9) why?
10) because had it done the vertical on time... I would know what to expect
11) I don't know what to expect if the late move is a vertical...
12) does that mean we are still on blue route for previous draft?
13) I am too tired, so f this, Im going to bed

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14) BTW, a vertical is literally a vertical move down
15) as opposed to a zig-zag curve
16) they are different and they do different things
17) if I HAVE TO MAKE A CALL, I think yellow route (this draft chart at top) is right
18) but I can't prove it bc I don't have time
19) good night

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11:36 PM ET, I'm lights out... but be aware
a) I think we have it right in chart at top
b) BUT I DON'T "KNOW" THAT
c) odds 2:1 or better (in my opinion)

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1:08 AM ET 2317.XX
a) I have a hard time accepting this bottom w/o tagging 2300 min
b) the trend engine says move not over
c) just be careful, Im lights out again.

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7:44, NO TIME
1) this needed updating at 1:30
2) sorry, should have gave clear guidelines
3) out of time, so gotta stop here

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4/25/24, 10:29 PM ET. I tried as hard as I could to turn this into something.
1) I have no way forward.
2) So to finish off this project, I bring up this post that I posted November of 2022:

MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

3) This draft - despite its intermediate inaccuracies - should more or less nail the long term move.
4) And that is the move to 3700, in 12-hour bars.
5) While I have updated it with a PART 4 draft, I see now that this draft will win out in the end.
6) That's it and have a good one.

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9:04 AM, I've solved - from a technical standpoint- the problem with intermediate price action:

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a) this is so nobody gets hurt from misunderstanding
b) consider:

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a) for 2 charts above and chart above that "Rumors of a Pivot part 3"
b) so as I wrote notes to close this out, I realized how long the "binary situation" lasts..
c) from a purely technical standpoint
d) and the answer it simple yet annoying
e) it lasts until it breaks... that's it
f) meaning intermediate price action is not obvious until it's about to be obvious
g) and it can still reverse should it choose to
h) that is to say you can not - from daytrading or weekly trading standpoint - ..
i) ever be really sure... except for the some windows of time where you are...
j) this is why the the when going up, there were so many rallies that "never followed through to their completion"
k) but only last half way or a third
l) this also has to do with the way forex system is setup globally
m) to sum it up:
n) this forecast in chart at top expires today
o) why?
p) b it is in a binary zone where it is unknowable which route it will take
q) so that's a total wrap

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10:25 AM - TO BE EVEN CLEARER FOR THE QUESTION OF 2222 CHECKDOWN:
a) if you ask me right now to call top, I would say 3700 next summer-fall
b) that's super obvious now

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c) but if you ask me will we hit 2222 before we go up
d) what you are asking me is this:

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e) since the drop from 2432, none of my "base cases" have been right
f) but as long as I "update continuously", I get the next part right
g) so the same way that I have to update "around the clock" to eliminate errors for day trading
h) I would have to update every day for intermediate swings
i) other wise it's a % call that's not very effective bc the odds keep on shifting

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j) so in chart above for this situation
k) classical TA has said that the red trend line here dictates the price pattern
l) so there's 2 boxes
m) if price can't break red line after FOMC and NFP (blue and black verticals)
n) odds favor 2222 (and even 2195))
o) in that sense at 2334.xx as I am typing odds favor first box
p) but if red line breaks, then the June bottom would be 2350-2370
q) there's way to know without updating forecast all the time

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r) so the moral to the story is?
s) THE SHORTER YOUR TIME FRAME IS, THE MORE ACCURATE YOU HAVE TO BE
t) AND BY EXTENSION, THE MORE UPDATING OF FORECASTS NEEDED.
u) and it's simple to understand why, there's more room for error if you are long term
v) if you day trade, you need up dates around the clock
w) at least one observation every 30 minutes to catch all the turns
x) this is why I miss the most turns when I sleep

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y) the other part is you must always have a binary answer or a PLAN B
z) this is why I catch moves so well if I'm around the clock, I almost always have a PLAN B

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