Year-end gold prediction: $970-$1030

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   黃金 / 美元
This very strong trendline has been lasting for gold for some time now, and I don't expect it to stop, and it has just been touched, so this looks like a very good place to get in with a short position if you agree with this outlook (many will disagree!).

The US economic data is currently not bad, but not great, and consumer spending most certainly isn't great. This suggests that the Fed may not reach, or get much closer to, their inflation target. This could result in backtracks on interest rates which will ultimately result in the price of gold increasing. In addition to this, the markets are pricing in a 13% chance of negative interest rates by 2017!

Despite consumer spending data, I think that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates for the duration of the year. This is because labour statistics remain strong, and the US economy isn't in a poor enough state, in my opinion, for the Fed to halt their rate path.

I have tagged an alternative opinion from someone else below.
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