XAU/USD daily overview

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   黃金 / 美元
The yellow metal has remained stable against the US Dollar during the following two weeks. Along the way, the rate did manage to reach a new 2017/2018 high at 1,365.00. The rate has since edged slightly lower and breached the 55-hour SMA .

Technical indicators demonstrate that some slight downside potential still exists in the market. But given that the pair is facing a strong support of the 100-hour SMA and the weekly and monthly PPs , losses should not exceed 1,337.70. From the upside, Gold is restricted by the 55-hour SMA circa 1,353.00.

Banks in the US are closed today; thus, the market is unlikely to introduce significant changes to the pair’s positioning. The rate might even consolidate and remain between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. If bulls are to prevail, gains could be capped at 1,365.00.

The first part of Monday’s session was spent with no changes to the overall market price, as Gold was fluctuating in a narrow range between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. The latter, reinforced by the bottom boundary of a two-week channel up, was breached late in the evening, thus pushing the rate closer to the 200-hour SMA, the 23.60% Fibo retracement and the monthly PP circa 1,335.00.

Technical oscillators have been pushed in the strongly oversold region, thus pointing to a possible recovery during this session. Thus, the base scenario favours a test of the aforementioned 1,335.00 level and a subsequent surge towards the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.

By and large, moving averages are expected to be strong barriers that should not surrender today.

Tuesday’s morning session was spent calmly, as the pair was fluctuating between the 23.60% Fibo and the weekly PP. This still movement changed later in the day when a strong hourly plunge allowed for a breakout of the 200-hour SMA circa 1,335.00. Gold has since edged slightly lower; however, it did remain within the bounds of a narrow short-term channel down.

Given that technical indicators are still located in the oversold region, a bullish recovery is still expected to occur in the nearest time. The pair should gain some pips during the following hours; however, the 1,335.00/1,340.00 area is likely to restrict further advance. In terms of support, the yellow metal should not exceed the weekly S1 at 1,320.00.

The market might also be steady prior to FOMC meeting minutes published at 1900GMT.

After breaching the 200-hour SMA late on Tuesday, the yellow metal has since been moving lower. Wednesday’s trading session, however, did not introduce significant changes, as the pair closed the day with a limited 0.35% decline.

The FOMC meeting minutes introduced some upward volatility which was still more favourable for the US Dollar. As apparent on the chart, the narrow junior channel has managed to confine the rate for the third consecutive session. A breakout is expected to occur today.

Gold might still slide lower down to the weekly S1 or the 38.20% Fibo at 1,320.00 and 1,316.62, respectively. However, the overall direction should nevertheless be north with gains being capped near the 200-hour SMA, the monthly PP and the 23.60% Fibo in the 1,335.00/1,337.50 territory.

Following a test of the weekly S1 at 1,320.00, bulls took over the market and managed to push the yellow metal 0.8% higher within a couple of hours. The pair, however, stopped short of the expected daily high of 1.338.00, as the Asian session introduced some minor downward pressure.

By early Friday, Gold was testing the support of the 55-hour SMA circa 1,337.50. Even though technical indicators flash bullish signals in this session, the pair might fail to breach the massive resistance cluster formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the 23.60% Fibo and the monthly PP. Thus, this 1,335.00 might be the daily high for today.

In terms of support, the rate could halt near the weekly S1 and spend the day fluctuating between this level and the above 1,335.00 area.
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