I would call gold as my this year's worst trade since with the increased physical demand COT data are some bit of difficult to analyse. STRIKING this week a really significant long reduction by managend money... Striking a high net short positioning by commercials and Striking that the short term COT index (13 weeks) is in a sell signal region. Of course data were from last Tuesday before FED meeting. Striking that the dovish FED result (I can't understand it, but JY is maybe preparing for a Trump presidency and trying to keep her Job...) did not have that significant effect on an upward move of gold. I expect a downward move Mon/Tue till 1305-13015 and further staying in HOLD... If us perma bulls in Gold are lucky we will finally see significant decline allowing a significant decline of commercials net short % positioning and thus allowing the next upward movement in Gold. And always remember the one and only rule in Gold trading : "Commercials NEVER lose"!
評論
sulbas
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Good comments. Dont u think that we have a couple of weeks before big move up
darth.stocks
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Difficult to say, and as gold is my worst trade this year, please see my opinion as a counter indicator... But you have to be aware that corrections this year were mainly by Managed Money selling longs... This week about 26000 longs were closed. So we have a slow decay of the price. If Commercials start to close shorts we'll have again a waterfall like price development as we used to have it the last few years. Ins I am afraid that this is about to come at some time.