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RealMcafee
2018年2月20日早上8點27分

BTCUSD: CORRECTION 看空

Bitcoin / U. S. DollarKraken

描述

Looks like we just topped out on BTCUSD.

Buy back levels are 0.236 and 0.382, for me on Kraken that's 10250 and 9400. It might be we visit both levels or just the first, either way btfb!

Look to your other coins too.

評論

How this new 4hr candles closes may determine the next day or so. An appropriate pullback would be at least to the 0.236 level, but because this market is otherwise very bullish we might only get 11,000

評論

Combined resistance point:
100 daily MA, primary descending resistance and head and shoulders neckine

評論

Well, there she blows. We're no back below the 50 dMA and yes, I'm a happy little bear. Here's a chart. Targets are provisional, this uptrend is overall very bullish so I will play it by eye. Also we may be in a potential inverted head & shoulders again. I'm hoping this will be a real correction that will last a couple days. Buy the support! Happy days!

評論

Just an idea how I see us hitting targets, I don't know which is more likely if either

評論

A key support was just broken. Although price looks like it's consolidating I now assume it to move down eventually.

Assuming the price was manipulated up to close yesterday (as many say), then it is fair to assume that the Big Boys will let it fall to a level that suits them best for re-entry. Right now volume is very low, it's unlikely that these prices can be sustained without the kind of manipulation we've seen before. It's really a shorter's paradise right now with people buying bounces and dips that go nowhere. If you don't believe in market manipulation, just replace the word manipulation with bullish momentum.

評論

Im assuming an ABC correction, see update to previous chart for details.

評論

I should also mention the above ABC wave assumes that we have completed a 5 wave cycle. If we haven't then this in fact wave 4 and we have just bounced, so that would mean end of correction. Can't tell which is which just have to risk or wait for confirmation.

評論

In my opinion wave 1 of the first impulse wave is complete. I expect wave two (which we are in) to take us down more, maybe to 9k. I will be buying here. This is in my opinion the last chance for cheap BTC.

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This is how I'm seeing this correction, for me it is the decisive breakout. If we fail it's a bear market.

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Quick update. head & shoulders now complete. We bounced at 0.5 level as expected, but I'm waiting to see how bullish this turns. I have suspicions that we will may drop to the 0.618 level, but it's just a gut feeling + some indications from altcoins.
Anyway the market looks bullish still. Closing above the 0.382 level means would be good confirmation of upward momentum.

評論

Update: I still see the giant inverse head and shoulders as the most likely scenario. Volume indicator tells me we haven't hit the bottom yet but is probably very close.

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Price just broke out of a downtrend in the right shoulder. Very bullish still. Think this is the B wave of ABC correction.

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Update for inverse head & shoulders scenario

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Crucial BTC test coming up today. Either we breakout of this current minor downtrend and continue impulse wave or we go down to next fib level

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BTC update: daily MACD says strong down.

評論

BTC looks like it's going for a breakout short-term trade maybe
評論
therealpeterpark
Looks solid
RealMcafee
@peterpark, Thanks, let's see.
JoshNJ82
Very nice. Thanks for the time and energy spent w/ the initial analysis and all subsequent updates and commentary.
RealMcafee
@JoshNJ82, Thanks!
Mikelikescrypto
It's dangerous shorting BTC and it's parabolic 2x runs...
RealMcafee
@Mikelikescrypto, definitely not shorting this one, but I expect a decent pullback so we can go higher.
Mikelikescrypto
@barclayjames, Well nearly 1k so far, I'm thinking this is subwave 1/2 of the larger wave to 5. I would think nearly 14k, 13.888? is the target till we get a 40-50% retrace. Then that will be the first wave, with the next a wave 3 that will take us pretty damn high.
RealMcafee
@Mikelikescrypto, Oh Elliott wave again (scratching my head). I find myself constantly revising my EW count for BTC, it's a tricky one. If we just finished wave 1 of 5 then I 100% agree this is 2 of 5 and the end target could be even higher imo (originally I thought bulltrap to 16000, there's a chart somewhere), but also there's a chance this is still wave 4 of 1 of 5, in other words there was an extended wave 3. This happens a lot with bullish bitcoin and is very annoying for wave counting. It depends how this correction pans out. Either way I am still bullish in the longer term and 14 to 16 k is very possible i think.
Mikelikescrypto
RealMcafee
@Mikelikescrypto, definitely possible, I also see this as a possibility (extended 3 wave)
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