So my view is: 2000 - very likely 1880 - likely (if cyan blue support line is broken) 1815 - possible but also retracement of Wave II 1700 - if breaking down from 1800 1500 - immediate buy chance of a lifetime 1320 - the ultimate bottom
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Your main indicators should now be 1D and Weekly since to spot bottoms and reversals. 4H should be okay for more precise entries.
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So as you can see there are three cups. The largest one is the biggest support there is, cannot drop below and is also fibs support!. The second cup can play out and there is also the golden line support which should make it a pretty powerful support area. But breaking that is bad and then this momentum can get to our bottom cup. The top one will be completed the most likely if it doesn't go lower and keeps support (this bottom is the 1880 USD).
Each cup curve should act both as support and resistance (if broken).
Hope this clear some things up! Good luck everyone.
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Oh you could possibly add one more cup with bottom at 2150, but considering weekly and monthly chart. This will get broken easily.
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If you would like to use this chart and add your own things, click SHARE and then on "Make It Mine"!
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Normal Distribution applied to Trading
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So I personally think we are in a bulltrap on bitcoin now. The weekly/monthly indicator show an overall downtrend so that will me the major guidance of the smaller timeframes. The red curve you see in my interactive chart is resistance, but I put added 2 more for topwigs. We either should break out, which will be hard or the downtrend will continue.
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Bitcoin now facing some resistance. I think it will go further down from here.
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Around 2400-2420 support.
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This is more like art, but still reflects the thoughts of where bitcoin is heading. Hope you guys like it :)
Since this market is not 100% predictable, if we break above ATH we could be heading towards 4000$ USD. We still have to check for a clear breakout, but this sounds promising.
取消訂單
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BTC stronger and broke outside so this chart will no longer be supported and closed. Understand that this market is under constant re-evaluation and no prediction is 100% correct.
"With a reported 75.7% share of the South Korean bitcoin market volume, Bithumb is one of the five largest bitcoin exchanges in the world and hosts over 13,000 bitcoins worth of trading volume daily, or roughly 10 percent of the global bitcoin trade."
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The largest bitcoin and ether exchange in South Korea by volume, Bithumb, was recently hacked. Monetary losses from compromised accounts have started to surface, and are quickly reaching into the billions of won.
With a reported 75.7% share of the South Korean bitcoin market volume, Bithumb is one of the five largest bitcoin exchanges in the world and hosts over 13,000 bitcoins worth of trading volume daily, or roughly 10 percent of the global bitcoin trade.
The exchange also hosts the world's largest ether market. While trade in the South Korean won currently makes up the fourth largest currency market for bitcoin, trailing the US dollar, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen, the won market is Ethereum’s largest. Bithumb accounts for around 44 percent of South Korean ether trading.
A cyber attack late last week resulted in the loss of billions of won from customers accounts, according to a major local newspaper, the Kyunghyang Shinmun. One victim alone claimed that "Bitcoins worth 10 million won” in his account “disappeared instantly.”
Hackers succeeded in grabbing the personal information of 31,800 Bithumb website users, including their names, mobile phone numbers and email addresses. The exchange claims that this number represents approximately three percent of customers.
The breach was discovered by Bithumb on June 29 and reported to the authorities on June 30. More than 100 Bithumb customers have since filed a complaint with the National Police Agency's cybercrime report center.
While admitting to being hacked on their website, Bithumb maintained that there was no direct access to funds stored on the exchange. Nonetheless, many customers are reporting their digital currency wallets being emptied. The exchange further claims that the breach was made to a personal computer belonging to an employee, and not the exchange’s internal network, servers nor digital currency wallets.
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Could we be entering a new bullish phase?
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Hmm I think not regarding to the last update. From what I've learned is that the larger Timeframes in trading or just in general are the most predictable and define the chaotic behavior on smaller timeframes. I don't like to make calls all the time whether we are bullish and then bearish again. So this short-timeframe nitpicking is over and I'll only be focusing on the weekly chart now.
The interactive chart I posted is still valid, but only delayed and the price levels are still target points.
We touched the bottom of the first cup! Which was around 1815-1880 USD. Retracement to 2150 very likely, from there more dip.
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I think we have hit the bottom at 1800 area, looks like BTC could be up for a new bullrun! But before we get too excited, lets see how August with the Fork progresses. Even if it doesn't fork, and we get update, we still don't know how this will affect bitcoin's economy and how miners will deal with it. For the time being, it does look we broke the downtrend ;)
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Corrective pattern spotted. Similar to previous shown V-Correction, followed by 3 following waves and hourly macd crossing over. Strong rises like these don't have unlimited volume to sustain trend so correction from this point very likely.
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What a great outbreak! I have been on holiday for past two weeks but I'm back now. Look like my buy target of 1815-1880 worked out well and was the bottom of the cup. We took off at the "Disbelieve" phase and are now making the outbreak handle of the cup. The green upper line is acting as resistance/support, breaking up we could go to 5K levels! But we could also see some correction at this point. I will be making new charts, this one will be closed and as always: Happy trading and good luck!
If he can get us to depression he'll have done his job
catalystcw
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Great analysis. I enjoyed reading your charts and getting valuable insights on what could be a possibility. I certainly believe BTC will fall further and this will create a wonderful opportunity for people to buy at lower prices.
The problem many inexperienced traders will have is holding their positions from the bull run and not having enough liquidity to buy the lower levels. This may end up being an opportunity of a lifetime. I'm personally closing all my alt coin positions and waiting to get clear direction of the next trend (hoping it will fall further).
following*
nakov
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@catalystcw, while I do agree with your sentiment about the inexperienced traders and the opportunity of a lifetime, I do not agree with closing positions in all altcoins EXCEPT that you buy those back IMMEDIATELY after the market stablilizes and starts growing again. For alts one must have extensive knowledge of fundamentals. I prefer staying in an alt that will soon double compared to selling it and selling BTC for USD so that I do not incur 20% loss (if BTC goes down to 2k). 100% profit overwhelms 20% loss of BTC going down to 2k (if the latter happens at all!). Good luck!
catalystcw
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@nakov, Yup I fully get your persepective. What I failed to mention was that I was referring to traders who are not long term investors. If you are trading coins to make profits from quick movements, then my point above applies however if you are an investor, you would have certainly done some fundamental analysis combined with TA and bought your coins to buy and hold for long term. This would require patience and a long term investment view.
Bro this chart is pretty much rekt. Please do a new one.
TheTrex
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@electo, I dont see how this is rekt? It followed my cups nicely, even my bottom targets are hit?
electo
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@TheTrex, Sorry should have commented more. Just meant the last part where you went short. Needless to say i think most charts were wrong on this BTC bullrun.