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XRP likely headed lower

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We saw XRPUSD pop slightly above $0.51 three days ago on the fake news about the SEC approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. However, these gains lasted briefly, and XRPUSD bounced off the 50-day SMA that remains hovering above the 20-day SMA, indicating a downtrend. As for other technicals (on the daily time frame), MACD, RSI, and Stochastic are bearish. In fact, MACD recently failed to stay above the midpoint and reenter a bearish zone, which is quite worrisome. Due to that, we continue to be bearish on XRPUSD and think Bitcoin’s growing dominance will keep a lid on its price. Consequently, our view that XRPUSD will mark new lows below $0.45 remains valid.

Illustration 1.01

The picture above shows the daily chart of XRPUSD and simple support/resistance levels.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

註釋

XRPUSD began to rise and is currently testing Resistance 1. If it succeeds in penetrating it to the upside, then further surge is likely in the very short term. In such a case, we think XRP might rise as high as $0.56.

註釋

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 displays the 1-minute chart of XRPUSD, where XRP can be seen soaring to $0.52 and then invalidating breakout; we will pay close attention to this level.

註釋

So finally, we found a supposed reason for the surge, which seems to be the news about the SEC dropping claims agains two Ripple Labs executives. We did not know about this news at the time of submitting previous updates. But after finding out that the price action was caused by news, we would like to rethink our earlier assumptions about more upside (as this price action could have been merely a noise caused by news). To confirm that, we will seek XRP fail to hold above Resistance 1 and give up the gains in the next day or two.

註釋

So far, XRPUSD has not given up its gains. Besides that, MACD is starting to break above the midpoint on the daily chart, which is a bullish sign (though ADX is still low, reflecting a weak trend); however, if MACD fails to break out, it will be warning sign. WIth Bitcoin gaining (and dragging rest of the cryptocurrencies) we are starting to doubt our initial assessments and think that we might actually see more whipsaws in the price of XRPUSD. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor the asset and update our thoughts with emergence of new developments.