Here's my thoughts on the possible movements of XRP over the coming days. I am anticipating price to move below the ~$2 level which is the yearly open. With the expectation that the yearly candle will be green/bullish, that means any movement below $2 will turn out to be the wick.
There is currently a void on the weekly chart and I have marked out the level with the purple line. This also lines up with the ICT OTE fib level and an area of previous consolidation on the lower time frames. XRP has had a great run up and is due for this correction which I see as healthy for the coin/token. I expect some news to drive out the weak hands below $2.
I would expect a quick run down to the $1.10-1.25 level before this altcoin continues higher an ultimately to new ATH.
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So far price has been under a controlled decline which I am liking - no real panic selling or FOMO candles at this stage.
My first level of buying in will be at the 50% fib around 1.75. From there I will scale in more if it keeps declining. My other buying levels will be 1.60, 1.40 and 1.25 but I will also be looking for strength around these levels as there is no guarantee this will hit the lower targets.
Once the low of the retracement is found, I will update this chart or post a new chart with some targets for taking some profits. Overall though, this is a buy and hold for me - just adding to my current stack.
交易進行
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1st entry at the 50% fib level has been hit. Partial entry taken at 1.75. Next target is the stops at 1.60
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I have sold half of the coins/tokens I bought at 1.75 & 1.65. I sold them at 1.98 on the rally. I was hoping for further decline during the US trading session but it seems to have entered into a consolidation.
With the H4 candle bodies holding below the yearly open at 1.97 I am now looking for the drop to continue in the Asian session. There is also a confluence of a H4 ICT breaker at this level with the 50% around 1.99 (see chart below).
Also, if the latest wick high at 2.07 holds, then by using a fib extension (pink fibs) from the low at 1.61 to this high, you will see the 200% extension lines up at 1.15 with the old weekly high (1.25) and OTE (1.11) - see second chart.
I will probably buy in with half of my funds at 1.30 then see what I can get from 1.25 down as it depends on whether I am at the screen or not.
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By the way, there is also a H4 breaker covering the target area for more confluence
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With the current news on MoneyGram it looks like XRP may have found a bottom in this retracement (still to be confirmed). At the moment, we have a market structure break to the upside and I am waiting to see if the H4 breaker holds (first chart). There is also another 5 hours left on the daily candle, and if it can stay green then that is good news as the daily order block has held it's ground (second chart).
I've entered with the rest of my position (unleveraged) at 2.00 inside the H4 breaker.
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Well, we've now hit the $1 level. I'm adding to my collection here. Note that we could still see a run down to 0.80-0.85 levels
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Some nice RSI divergence around this $1.00 level. M15 chart - tradingview.com/x/NUkx6vA1/
H1 chart - tradingview.com/x/751gRtkF/
H4 in progress - tradingview.com/x/7l3aEym3/
Daily in progress - tradingview.com/x/WSvBPMD9/
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M15 RSI divergence
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H1 RSI divergence
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H4 RSI divergence (incomplete candle)
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Daily RSI divergence (incomplete candle)
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While price action has so far followed my chart, I now believe we will see a deeper retracement. You will see we didn't take out the stops at the 0.86 level and instead have put in a triple bottom (H4 chart and lower). From here price has now rallied creating optimism for the bulls in order to build sell stops below the triple bottom. I see this current bounce having an upper limit of 1.80.
As per the chart below, I think we will see a bottom between 0.50 - 0.64; and I would expect it to happen either this weekend or early next week. You will also notice the old ATH at 0.399 as an extended target.
As a point of confluence, you will notice the two blue boxes. The first was created from the 2018 open to the January high. This box was then copied and used to measure an identical move down using the 2018 open as the median. As you can see it lines up with a stop run at the 0.64 level.
Hey man! Thanks for the you've taken to post this ;)
I have entered 100% at 1.75. And I think I'm having seconds thoughts (although it's holding for now) :P
I know it's too early to say, but how do you see it coming? I was thinking of maybe selling half and re enter progressively at lower levels as you suggested...
Thanks!!
DanLaffas
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@LucasMetal, Hey mate, at the end of the day it's totally up to you. With the expectation of a big green yearly candle, you have essentially bought in the wick of that candle. There are no guarantees in this game so I would suggest being happy with your purchase and if you have further disposable funds then use that to buy at any lower levels.
It's hard to fight the FOMO! I am fighting it right now. Good luck :)
LucasMetal
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@DanLaffas, thanks for the quick response!! I'm not the only one watching it seems! haha but it's 5am here in Argentina, I need to sleep :P
I followed your advice and put some extra money in the lower levels you mentioned.
It would be awesome if you could update the post with some profit taking levels (after the bears are gone).
Thanks and good luck for you too!
DanLaffas
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@LucasMetal, No worries. Get some sleep as there's nothing left for you to do now but wait it out.
I'll update this post and also share a new chart with some potential take-profit levels once this correction is over. Overall though, I am looking to hold the majority of my bag for around 1-3 years. There are so many unknowns when crypto launches like this as there is nothing to reference off, so I will mainly be using fib extensions for targets.
RinatG
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For real?
DanLaffas
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@RinatG, anything is possible. This is just the extreme level that 'could' happen. See above for my buying levels.
H4 chart showing the consolidation/accumulation at the OTE level
Moocharoo
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@DanLaffas, excellent chart analysis I agree... too late for me though, I had a buy order set for $1.42 but the wait was just too long, so took it off to buy other stuff
I have entered 100% at 1.75. And I think I'm having seconds thoughts (although it's holding for now) :P
I know it's too early to say, but how do you see it coming? I was thinking of maybe selling half and re enter progressively at lower levels as you suggested...
Thanks!!