Forex Volatility Hits 15-Year High as Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Currency Markets

Currency markets are experiencing their most turbulent period in almost two decades, with daily swings of 2–6% wiping out entire months of trading profits. Geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East reshape global financial dynamics.

Why the Dollar's Old Rules Don't Work in Today's Volatile Markets

The volatility surge is forcing businesses to rethink their foreign exchange strategies, particularly as traditional correlations break down. The dollar no longer reliably rises when markets fall, while Japan's hawkish monetary policy shift and Europe's defense spending ramp-up add new variables to an already complex equation.

“We're clearly in the early stages of a prolonged period of uncertainty, which is driving volatility across financial markets, particularly in FX,” commented Grain, the Tel Aviv-based fintech that processes over $150 million monthly across more than 50 currencies.

The company, co-founded by former Barclays Israel COO Michal Beinish, has seen transaction volumes grow at an annualized rate of over 3x as businesses struggle with conventional hedging tools that executives describe as “expensive, blunt, and often too slow” to handle rapid market shifts.

JPMorgan G7 volatility index

Middle East Conflicts Ripple Through Global Markets

The ongoing conflict in Iran is already shifting oil prices and impacting global currency dynamics, part of what analysts see as a broader trend of rising macro instability spanning from Ukraine to China and now the Middle East.

For companies operating across borders, a single currency move triggered by tariffs, elections, or rate decisions can erase an entire month's gains. Traditional hedging approaches are falling short as correlations weaken and uncertainty spreads to formerly stable G10 currencies.Dor Golan, CEO of Grain

“While geopolitical tensions influence overall FX volatility, our growth is primarily fueled by product-market fit rather than macro events alone,” said Dor Golan, CEO of Grain.

Cancellation Patterns Signal Market Stress

The company's data reveals telling patterns about how geopolitical stress affects cross-border commerce. Grain observes cancellation rates of approximately 50% in travel, 25% in e-commerce, 15% in payment service providers and marketplaces, and 10% in accounts receivable/payable use cases.

“As geopolitical tensions rise, we've observed a growing correlation between cancellation rates and FX market volatility,” Golan noted. The company processes up to 200 million transactions daily for some customers, giving it unusual visibility into real-time market behavior.

The fintech uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to assume FX risk in scenarios traditionally considered unsolvable at scale, absorbing mark-to-market risk on cancellations so customers don't need to post collateral or manage exposure themselves.

AI-Powered Pricing Adapts to Volatility

Grain's pricing engine analyzes real-time behavioral data and live market inputs to personalize FX rates for individual users. Two users may receive rates that differ by up to 30% based purely on risk and reliability assessments.

“This behavioral sensitivity enables us to detect early shifts in volatility and exploit pricing discrepancies between hedge cost and user risk,” Golan explained. “It also allows our customers to leverage FX prices that are typically 1–3% more competitive, and that drive 6–8% lift in sales conversion and volume at their checkouts.”

The company's approach of integrating directly into customer systems provides visibility into transaction flows, allowing it to aggregate risk across portfolios and unlock pricing efficiency that can deliver FX savings up to 5% per transaction.

Businesses Seek New Solutions

The prolonged uncertainty is accelerating adoption of automated, data-driven FX risk management tools as businesses realize that static approaches leave them vulnerable to market shifts and competitive pressure.

“Prolonged uncertainty is accelerating the shift toward automated, data-driven, and AI-powered FX risk management. But more importantly, it's highlighting FX as a powerful competitive lever,” Golan said.

The company serves payment service providers, marketplaces, accounts payable and receivable platforms, fintechs, and payroll providers with globally distributed customer bases. Its FX volume spreads fairly evenly across the four major trading sessions in Tokyo, London, New York, and Sydney, with a skew toward the Western Hemisphere.

“We're seeing rising demand across the board, including in traditionally ‘stable’ currencies like those in the G10. Businesses are realizing that static, legacy approaches to FX management leave them vulnerable to market shifts and competitive pressure,” Grain’s CEO concluded.