CFIB Index Breaks 50 Mark in July

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index rose 3.4 points to 50.9 in July 2025, the highest since January and the second reading above the 50-point optimism threshold this year.

Small business confidence is edging up but it remains at the breakeven point where equal shares of business owners expect stronger and weaker performances.

Confidence improved among exporters (45.4 vs 36.8), importers (43.3 vs 37.6), and domestically focused firms (48.3 vs 43.4), but foreign traders remain more pessimistic.

Sectoral sentiment was uneven, with optimism highest in health and education (55.6) and lowest in agriculture and finance (both 39.0).

Six sectors posted readings above 50, a divided outlook.

The labor market remains soft, with more firms planning layoffs than hirings.

Insufficient demand, high uncertainty, and trade barriers continue to weigh on sentiment, although labor shortages are easing as hiring appetite declines.

The short-term index edged up 1.3 points to 49.3.